Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Dow trend and prediction? See 10 year chart here

I haven't posted on the stock market recently so I decided to tell you where my head is right now. Above you will see the first 10 Year Chart of the Dow, which I assembled after the close today. The second c hart is from an earlier prediction I made which showed I expect the Dow to retest the lows. You will notice that there is significant resistance at Dow 11,000 looking at the first 5 years of the first chart. It has been an impressive rise form the lows of 6,400 but it appears to me now that we are in the process of forming a Head and Shoulder pattern that will mark the top. We have already formed the Left Shoulder in the past 2 months and are now making the head. From the Head formation we will drop somewhat and possibly as low as 10,000 but then will rise again to form the Right Shoulder. When that is complete the real correction will take place. This seems to me to be setting up for the May/June timeframe which will be the kickoff season for the November political Mid term campaigns.

We can come back in a few months and see if this plays out as I anticipate. It's just a guess as the markets really are being manipulated with excess dollars provided by the Fed in the form of significant liquidity in many forms. But I am very suspicious about Wall Street and their coziness with the Republican supporters. Much debate has begun regarding Financial reforms as evident by Sen. Chris Dodd suggesting his own reforms on his committee as he broke off working with Republicans. He is also retiring in November and I have written about the inherent conflict of interest he has because he will most likely go to work for one of these financial institutions after leaving the Senate.

So if the market begins its slide, the chance for meaningful regulations will be faced with a declining market and calls not to tamper with the market, as it is too fragile. It makes good strategic sense from the Financial Institutions own interests, as well as those elected officials beholding to those Institutions, to make this point. We already have Goldman Sachs working on the in the marketplace and former officials of Goldman Sachs are also working on this inside of the government. They have their bases covered. This is not good for remedying these concerns.

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