Monday, May 10, 2010

How one Option moved over this volatile period.



I wanted to show you how the value of the TZA Options I purchased on the morning of May 1st, moved over time and the effect of the market turmoil last week on the price and gains. (I have also included 2 charts. One is for the period of 1 week and the other is for the past Month.)

Call Options on TZA for October 16th expiration taken at various dates.
4/30/10
Last Bid Ask Tot. Vol. Strike Price

TZA 1.87 1.74 1.88 1,987 4.00 Strike Price
TZA 1.32 1.21 1.29 1,107 5.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.97 0.91 1.04 4,455 6.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.89 0.72 0.78 3,443 7.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.75 0.58 0.69 498 8.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.64 0.50 0.58 1,408 9.00 Strike Price Purchased my contracts at $0.58
TZA 0.49 0.43 0.50 4,610 10.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.52 0.38 0.46 164 11.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.47 0.34 0.41 178 12.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.45 0.30 0.37 48 13.00 Strike Price
TZA 0.38 0.27 0.34 629 14.00 Strike Price

5/7/10
Last Bid Ask Tot. Vol. Strike Price Percent gain from 4/30/10
TZA 3.80 3.60 3.85 1,968 4.00 Strike Price 103%
TZA 3.10 2.96 3.25 1,204 5.00 Strike Price 135%
TZA 2.51 2.51 2.74 4,877 6.00 Strike Price 159%
TZA 2.22 2.16 2.30 3,449 7.00 Strike Price 149%
TZA 1.95 1.90 2.01 565 8.00 Strike Price 160%
TZA 1.74 1.68 1.79 1,549 9.00 Strike Price 172%. My gain was 190% because of lower purchase.
TZA 1.56 1.55 1.61 5,476 10.00 Strike Price 218%
TZA 1.25 1.36 1.47 340 11.00 Strike Price 140%
TZA 1.27 1.21 1.37 200 12.00 Strike Price 170%
TZA 1.13 1.15 1.26 43 13.00 Strike Price 151%
TZA 1.05 1.04 1.18 829 14.00 Strike Price 176%

As of the close today, most all were down between 12% and 38% with the one with a Strike Price of $11.00 had no change. I expect these to regain the losses that happened today as it is a long time between now and October expiration. The Strike Price of $10.00 for October seems to be attracting the largest trading volume. I would say the $9.00 Strike Price gave the second best return of these so far.

So the minimum gains are still over 80% for these and as high as 157%. I will look for any further rise as an opportunity to add to my Call Option positions on TZA.

I have been asked if this trend down is complete now and if we are starting a new trend up. My belief is that we may go up again a bit tomorrow, but this downtrend line, which started about a week ago will continue. We will zig and zag, up and down, but the pattern should become clearer in a week, when May Options expire on May. 22nd.

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