Thursday, May 06, 2010

Stock market drop: I told you so! UPDATE

Let's first focus on the first 2 charts of the SP500 and the Dow for a year. Those of you that read my Blog regularly know I have been warning people of the market drop. I even said in one of my recent Blogs "FAIR WARNING!" So the fact you're here means you want to know if we are going to go back up? We could go up a bit, but I believe we are eventually going way down as I have said many times recently. Go back and look at charts (March 23rd) where I predicted how far the markets are going to go down.

The Dow closed down to 10,520, down 347 points, while the S&P closed at 1128, down 38 points. The VIX (Volatility Index) closed at 32.80, up 7.89. The third chart is of the VIX and you can see that it zoomed to a 1 year high today.

I told a few friends on Monday I had purchased several Options. I bought Call Options for TZA (the ETF Ultra Short of the Russell) at a Strike Price of $9.00/share for Oct. 16th, for $0.58/share. Today, those shares closed at $1.20/share, in effect doubling my money. And I also bought Put Options on MGM for a Strike Price of $12.00 for September for $1.15/share. Those shares closed today at $2.03/share yielding a 77% gain. I still own those Options as I truly believe we are heading down, down down. Good luck out there.

UPDATE: 6:00pm PST

The Nikkei is dropping at the open and so far has dropped 433 points in 45 minutes after the open. Yesterday the Nikkei dropped over 350 points and so it appears there is more downside coming even tomorrow, unless the Nikkei recovers. I would watch to see before our market opens tomorrow as to whether the European markets are also down significantly and then choose a strategy that is right for you and your own situation.

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