Friday, May 21, 2010


The Volume of Dow stocks traded equalled 140 Million shares in the first 5 minutes of the market open with the Dow going down 140 points breaking below 10,000 to 9918.

More updates will be added here during the day today as Options expire for May today.

Update 7:00am PST
The Dow has clawed back to positive territory in the last minute or so at 7:00am PST, 10:00am EST. Volume now 177 Million shares traded on the Dow. It is going to be a roller-coaster ride today. The Put to Call ratio is now 1.37, down from 1.53 at the close last night. The VIX hit a high earlier of 47.20 before backing off to 43.70, the low now for the day.

Update 7:20am PST
Volume hits 200 Million shares for the Dow with Dow down only 12 points.

Update: 7:40am PST
The Put to Call ratio has dropped to 1.27 now and looks as though it will continue to decline during the day. The Candlestick pattern for the first hour is a W pattern except this one has the lower right bottom point of the W higher than the left side. This usually indicates that the trend will be up during the day. Volume now is only 215 million shares.

Update: 8:00am PST
Put to Call ratio dropped again to 1.23 now. Also, Volume currently totals 231 Million shares. market is up as prdicted at 7:40am Update 28 points to 10,096.

Update 8:38am PST
As you can see from the chart below of the Intraday of the Dow, a "W" pattern formed in the first hour of trading. Notice the slope of that first W formation was up as the Red line indicates. This meant that the Dow was going to go up, which it did following the completion of the "W". These intraday charts as as important as longer term charts. But the principle is the same and why when I showed the 2 month chart prediction a few days ago I made a W pattern prediction based upon the previous data points. Volume is 252 Million shares. But remember this move up, which took several hours did not equal the Volume of the first 5 minutes of trading.

Update: 10:30am PST
The Volume just hit 300 Million shares traded today. The Put to Call ratio seems steady in the 1.25 area while the VIX has retreated to 40.80 at this time. I would expect that the volume will surge within the last 15 minutes of trading today and today's Volume could reach 500 million shares traded on the Dow.

Update: 10:53am

Below find an updated Intraday chart and notice this time I have drawn a 2nd red line showing we are headed lower according to the W slanted pattern. Watch this unfold over time.

Update: 11:10am
Volume is now at 310 Million shares. The Put to Call ratio is now at 1.28 so creep in this indicator supports the Dow dropping from this level of being up 76 points or 10147. We should be starting to head back down shortly.

Update: 11:45am
Put to Call ratio increasing and now is at 1.32. Volume now 324 Million shares. Dow now at 10098, up 29 points. So it has dropped as projected from the 11:10am Update.

Update: 11:53am PST
I have updated the chart to show the drop which I had projected the Dow going down. It is not that difficult to predict if you have the time and can look at these charts when trading. It adds to your chances of making a good decision and that's what we are all trying to do. The same principles here apply to any longer term charts. The Volume is 330 Million shares traded on the Dow.

Update: 12:20pm PST
I was asked moments ago what if anything I would be buying right now. My answer is nothing. I expect that next week we will start a rally up to about 10,600 before we make another reverse turn. Around those levels I would byt TZA Call Options again for October expiration. I like the $9.00 Strike Price but more popular are $10.00 Strike price if you look at how many positions have been made. If you want to take a risk, you might consider buying TNA Options, TNA is the opposite ETF of TZA. That's for a short move. Why I don't like it is that I believe the longer trend now is down and these are more risky than TZA. If you buy TZA and the market goes up short term you can just buy more in anticipation of the drop coming. Hope this is useful. Volume now 346 Million shares.

Update 4:00pm PST
Sorry I wasn't here for a while but work called me and I just returned. I see the Dow closed up 125 points to 10,193. I have downloaded the Intraday chart of the Dow below and as you can see from the last red line I drew that the market was going to go up approaching the last part of the day. And while the Dow went as low as 10050 near the end of the day, it formed the last W pattern with a slant to the upside, as I have drawn, signaling a reversal upward. The Volume closed at 438 million, close to my prediction of 500 million shares. The Put to Call ratio closed at 1.32 for the day.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

would, and or what would you be buying today?
thank you

12:01 PM  

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