Market comment for Aug. 18th

It is going to be a quiet day. No real economic data is released until Thursday, when we get Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims data. The Jobless Claims numbers are very important because we have a number of weeks in a row where there has been an increase. This is not good and in the wrong direction. If the number can come in at equal to or less than 465,000 that will help stop this trend and give us a breather for another week. If the number comes in equal to or over 490,000 that would be nerve-wracking for the market and we could take a bigger step down. Tis would increase the volatility because of Options expiration on Friday.

The Dow and the S&P 500 are in a tight range of about 7-9% as is drawn on the 2 charts above. That is very difficult to trade unless you have some computer program telling you when to buy and when to sell. So best to wait for a breakout one way or another. I am sitting pat expecting the market to drop in Sept. I'll keep that strategy until the data shows something else.