Friday, October 07, 2011

Market comments for Oct. 7th, 2011

The Unemployment Rate stayed steady at 9.1% for September, as reported this morning. Non-Farm payrolls came in better than expected with a gain of 103,000 new jobs created. And on Thursday morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 401K for the week of 10/1.

This morning I have included several charts showing that while there is much volatility, there also is a pattern to the moves. AS you can see from the charts below, we are forming lower highs and new lower lows in this market. Will this continue? It's anybody's guess. I guess it will and while todays market looks tired with the recent gains, we may have put in the highs and are headed lower.

Also today I am posting from the Chart of the Day, which shows how slow this recovery has been compared to other recoveries.

"Today's chart puts the latest data into perspective by comparing nonfarm payrolls following the end of the latest economic recession (i.e. the Great Recession -- solid red line) to that of the prior recession (i.e. 2001 recession -- dashed gold line) to that of the average post-recession from 1954-2000 (dashed blue line). As today's chart illustrates, the current jobs recovery is much weaker than the average jobs recovery that follows the end of a recession. Today's chart also illustrates that the current jobs recovery has been slightly stronger than what occurred following the recession of 2001. However, the already modest upward trend has slowed significantly over the past five months."

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