Consumer Confidence (or the lack thereof!)

This morning Consumer Confidence data for August was released. Before I tell you what it was, you probably can guess what it was. First, July's data. It was revised from 59.5 to 59.2. Expectations for August were for it to come in at 52.0, a significant drop from July. But what was not expected was just how bad it would really be. Are you ready for it? Well it came in at 44.5! That is a huge drop.

In spite of all the hype in the stock market these past week or two that these are the time to be buying, Consumers are telling us exactly how they think this economy is doing. The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant.

Below is a chart from WallStreetCheatSheets which shows this data from 1985 to May of 2011. You can see where this month's data would be on this chart as I have placed a red X on where it came in. There is also a Table which shows averages over a number of years to put this data in context.


Let's face it, anything less than 50 means that the data is measuring Consumer's Lack of Confidence. That is running at 100-44.5=55.5! Now I have some stocks I want to sell ya, as they are cheap right now, right!?

Update: U.S. Fatalities for August surprisingly jump!

I posted a few days ago under “US. Fatalities in Iraq for the month of August” that there were 81 deaths. The Bush Administration had hyped “the number was lower at 79 and lower than previous months” and that was the press on all major outlets including CNN. I look back today on September 5th at the actual numbers posted for August and surprisingly there are now 84 recorded deaths in Iraq of US. Forces, according to D.O.D and posted at i-Casualties.com.

What does this do to the news of a week ago.? It proves we were deceived for political reasons again by this Administration in their leadership over the military in what they want reported back to us. With 84 deaths of US soldiers in Iraq for August, they cannot claim that the numbers are going lower each month. This year, August, has surpassed July in deaths. In fact, it turns out that this August was just like any other August of the war, it surpassed the number of deaths in July as it has for the past 4 years. So everything you have heard has been used to manipulate the truth to support a position that is counter to what Americans want by an overwhelming number of us, 72% to be exact, from the last poll taken. We want the troops to be brought home and this President has no intention to do it and in fact is trying to manipulate facts on the ground so that both political parties must keep the war going on indefinitely. Shame on you, Mr. Bush. You are not my President, as you no longer deserve the respect to be called Mr. President, just George or hey you, will do.

I have updated my numbers and chart above to reflect the truth. 84 brave men and women died in Iraq in August. Bless and comfort their families in their grief. And I hope that George is tormented by the agony he has caused for so many families across America and in Iraq.

U.S. Fatalities for August. What's working in Iraq?!

This the last day remaining in August and the Administration pointing to the "facts" that the "surge" is working and citing the lower count in U.S. Fatalities as the evidence, I had to set the record straight. August's total U.S. Casualties is now 81, and last year the number was 65. These are real facts. What else has been distorted? They cite that this is the lowest month for U.S. Fatalities since the high back in May where 126 had died. This is nothing but spin. Yes, there were 126 deaths in Iraq in May, and we have come down steadily each month. That is fact. But let's look at the numbers for the same period for each year from May to August.

2004 May through August 242
2005 May through August 297
2006 May through August 244
2007 May through August 389

Is there any doubt now about how the data is being misused?!

Here's more real data. From the chart above you can see that for the same periods each year, that is from Sept. to Aug., which is a full year, this period of the war by far has been the most deadly. President Bush and his minions in the Administration are not only misleading the American public but also, more importantly, making a dishonest representation of the facts.

From Sept. 2003-Aug. 2004 693 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2004-Aug. 2005 902 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2005-Aug. 2006 759 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2006-Aug. 2007 1095 U.S. fatalities!

Bring the troops home before the list grows. Bring home the troops before this President starts another war, this time with Iran. If the troops aren't there they can't be used to launch another war of choice. If you are truly a patriot you will start speaking out more forcefully and more often. The Silent Majority has been too silent for too long!

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks of August

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks in August now total 63 with the latest tragedy of a Helicopter crash in Iraq, resulting in 14 deaths.

It seems now certain that the August numbers will have more U.S. fatalities than last year, and possibly all 3 other years. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

This war of choice brought to you by its authors, President George Bush. and Vice President Cheney. Bring the troops home now!

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks of August

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks in August totaled 41. Previously reported was fact that he first week of August had 21. However, as I have always focused on U.S. Fatalities, one must not forget of the tremendous loss of life of Iraqis in the past few days, with over 500 killed as a result of several coordinated car bombs.

It seems most probable that this August numbers will have more U.S. fatalities than last year, and possibly all 3 other years but I pray not. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

U.S. Fatalities for the first week in August

There were 21 deaths in this first week in August.

In the first week of March we had 24 fatalities.
In the first week of April we had 28 fatalities.
In the first week of May we had 27 fatalities.
In the first week of June we had 28 fatalities.
In the first week of July we had 27 fatalities

While the numbers for August look encouraging as compared to the past 5 months, I have learned that one week of data can be deceiving in projecting the whole month. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

This happening while our Congress is on its vacation. Many, including myself, ridiculed the Iraqi Parliament for taking a vacation as they complained it was too hot to work during August. Well our own members of Congress can't use that excuse as they have air conditioning. So why aren't they working and trying to get the votes to end this war. When they go home to their districts, they will get an ear full if they dare show up in public. Oh, and they had the audacity to pass what President wanted regarding warrantless wiretapping. Shame shame shame on Congress, as Congress is a sham, sham sham!