The prognosis for the Economy and Unemployment

The Sunday news talk shows had Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Larry Summers as featured guests. What was most evident from both of their conversations was that we have a long time before a real recovery takes place. For example, Geithner said unemployment would "ease" in the second half of next year. Geithner also said that extending unemployment benefits again is something the administration and Congress are going to "look very carefully at as the end of this year approaches." Well, to me that means two things: First, unemployment will rise for a full year from today and with it so will unemployment benefits, not just for the additional 13 weeks being contemplated now. Currently the unemployed are eligible for a total of 79 weeks of unemployment. Add a minimum of 13 additional weeks and you get 92 weeks of paid absence from a job. My God, that is almost 2 years! And those without jobs have at least another year of looking for a job before things look better for them. Consider what these means for the possibility of even more foreclosures.

Everyone believes the Consumer is not spending today but has increased savings. This also says there is most likely systemic changes in the patterns of Consumers behaviors that may be generational in duration. I can imagine a smaller footprint spending form the Consumer and a larger footprint needed by Corporations or Government to pick up that slack to help increase GDP. I saw a formula for GDP this morning while pursuing the Blog articles which said that GDP=C+I+G+(Trade Surplus or Deficit) where C is Consumer spending, I is for investments and G is government spending. You can see from the equation that the biggest part of GDP is going to come from Government (or us) and we are borrowing from the future of our children, kids and grandchildren and dooming them to less of a life to pursue the American Dream than any other generation of the past except from the Great Depression years. How can we look ourselves in the mirror and allow this to happen, you ask? Easy, as this generation of "What's in it for me" Americans, we don't really look in the mirror much and do the self reflection thing very well. We are so focused on ourselves, we have lost morality and sold our souls to the average bidder. Boy, the last 8 plus years have surely screwed up this country so badly, we may never recover. So when you hear the "good news" on better GDP, remember it is the Government spending driving it, not business and not the Consumer for the next few years. Don't be fooled that things are looking better. Make sure you look at the Unemployment rate and keep looking at the number of Home Foreclosures and Business and personal bankruptcies.

The seeds of our destruction were sown many years ago and most likely back in the Reagan Administration, (See the chart below from ZFacts.com with a great article that goes along with the chart) where Federal Deficits had new meaning. Ever since then, we have been going out of control. Twenty out of the past 26 years since 1982 when Reagan was President, Republicans have been in control of the Presidency. You will notice on the chart below, it was Clinton who actually turned this trend around only to be reversed again by George W. Bush.

A new and unique reaction to the Financial crisis of 2008: Class Warfare.

Past election issues, say from 1980-2004, have often been based upon ideological differences. The election of 2004 was based upon Security and who was going to make the Country safer, Bush or Kerry. In 2000, it was about proposed reforms of Social Security and Medicare and whether there was going to be a "lock box" for Social Security as Gore proposed or whether it was better to allow individuals invest their own retirement in the stock market, as Bush supported. (It's a good thing that idea never made it!) The other issue was, who was going to restore integrity and honor to the Presidency, after the Lewinsky matter and the impeachment of the President Clinton for lying turned the Country upside down and divided us into Red and Blue States. Another issue was weather we were going to use the U.S. Military fro "Nation Building". The Clinton Administration did send troops to the Balkans and this was supported by Gore. Bush wanted no Nation Building (in contrast to his desires the last 6 years in Iraq!). Gays in the Military were an issue and the Clinton Don't ask, Don't Tell policy was the policy of the Clinton Administration. Again, ideological issues around morality.

In the 1992 election between George Bush Sr. and a newcomer, Bill Clinton, Bush 1 had a very high approval rating of 89% after the first Gulf War. But that approval rating started dropping, as a mild recession encouraged Democrats there was a chance to win the election and take it away from Bush. Bush emphasized Clinton's lack of Military experience and ensured rumors of Clinton's infidelity took hold in the media. This campaign was as much about Clinton's character as anything else.

The 1988 election between Bush Sr and Dukakis had Bush casting Dukakis as a "proud liberal" that didn't have any Military experience, hence the famous photo of Dukakis in a tank with a helmut on and looking foolish according to the Bush attacks. There were a number of ideological differences between the 2 candidates. Dukakis tried to tie Bush to the scandals of the Reagan Administration, such as Iran Contra. During one of the Presidential debates Dukakis was asked by the Moderator if he supported the Death Penalty and gave Dukakis the situation for him to have as a context, which was that he was to pretend his wife was raped and murdered. Dukakis's answer discussed the statistical ineffectiveness of capital punishment. Rumors were spread that Dukakis's wife burned a Flag in protest of the Vietnam war.

In all of these examples the push for ideological differences is evident. For the first time in my memory, the fundamental difference in this election, is that it is about Class Warfare. There are no more Red States versus Blue States, Liberal versus Conservative. As a result of this unprecedented financial crisis, it's all about the Wealthy versus the Middle Class. Europe's elections have had this debate many times, but this is the first time in this country. Unions in France now have the power as they do in other European countries and in countries in South America as well. It is about empowering the Middle and Lower Class at the expense of the Wealthiest who have enjoyed an unprecedented run of about 30-50 years. Those who are wealthy are are split about this issue. Some believe the wealthiest are reaping the excesses of their failures to ensure all boats should have risen. They are willing to pay more in taxes and think it is fair and often wondered why the Republican Party under Bush 2 was pushing for so many tax breaks they really didn't need. It is a fact, that the gap between CEO's pay and average workers has increased many times fold over the past 20 years. This excess is giving rise to the highest voter participation rate in history. It has mobilized the youth of the country. With an election victory comes a more empowered electorate, just as the Founding Fathers had hoped would happen.

It has been a consequence of the actions and decisions of Presidents like Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 and all their supporters, including Corporate leaders who took abusive Salaries, Bonuses and company Stock Options. Those leaders got their Boards stacked with supporters who would approve these excesses and there was a quid pro quo for those serving on multiple Boards. You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. It is only those Corporations that truly have independent Board members that have a chance to limit excesses.

Even Healthcare companies, who have gone from Non Profit to For Profit Corporations are guilty of these excesses and are responsible for contributing to the high cost of healthcare. Greed drove these leaders to excesses. It might be a way to help reduce healthcare costs if we can get a handle on these excesses, and possibly return them from For Profit to Non Profit once again.

Lou Dobbs made his fame over the issues about jobs being outsourced abroad, illegal immigration ruining Middle Class jobs. War and Peace are still issues in this election as they have been since Vietnam. But because Iraq wants us to leave with in an agreed upon timetable, it is less of an issue than it could have been this time.

The focus the next 4-8 years will be about restoring a Middle Class in America, reigning in excessive CEO compensation, a better safety net for the less fortunate, a focus on real improvement in the education of our youth, and a world that works together because it has to in order to survive. Collaboration and cooperation will be the tools used. Everyone will be asked to sacrifice something for the betterment of all. After this election, the times they are a changing!!! It's now up to you to vote and start this chain reaction for the better! Turn away from the failed policies of the past. Vote for real change this time. Vote your interests not your favorite personality. Vote with courage of the unknown, not the fear that binds us to the past.

There's a caution sign for Hillary at the Democratic Convention

That's right, Hillary must be cautious her supporters don't take her future away by antics she would not want to take place. Movements can get away from those they are supporting without the leader being aware of it until it's too late. if things are discordant at the Convention, it is Hillary that has everything to lose, not Barack. People won't forget what happens here when we vote next time for President in 2012. It is the Clinton name on the line this week.

All Democrats want to win the Presidency and stop the policies of George Bush, none more so than the Clintons. She is going to need her loyal staff supporters to help her and Bill get through this without damaging the Clinton Brand. And you can count on Republican dirty tricks to try to create some discord, as witnessed by the latest ad of John McCain asking why Hillary wasn't chosen as VP. There are even so called "Independents" there with Hillary signs lamenting the situation and carrying Hillary signs. Don't be fooled by the distractions and circus outside the Convention .

Pennsylvania voters: You blew your chance to make history!

The Pennsylvania today is not the Pennsylvania of yesterday or of our forefathers. There was a battle between the politic of the recent past and a politic of our Founding Fathers. The old politic was brought to you by those who never vote their real interests but get caught up in the issues that keep them financially subservient to Corporations and that are similar of the politic of the Clinton's, and earlier Presidential hopefuls of both parties. The new politic was that of Barack Obama and closer to the politic of our Founding Fathers and the generation that built this country where the individual voted for what was best for the Country in the long run. That group of voters are made up today by the younger voters supporting Barack. They are a movement and no matter what happens in this election cycle, could prove the foundation of an ever growing chorus for changes in our political system. It could spawn a new political party or just change the Democratic Party by increasing numbers. But one thing is for sure, change is in the air and this flame will not be doused anytime soon.

One other thing I must say here, there is an element of bigotry going on in Pennsylvania as was true in New Hampshire as well. What support do I offer for this? Look at the pre election Polls. They showed Barack closing the gap to within 5 points. But when the process concluded there was a 10 point difference. People will say they will vote for a Black person, because it is the politically correct answer, but in the secrecy of the voting poll, they can vote their real feelings. I am surprised this has not been discussed by the media. But there were enough polls that had Barack very close in the final days. And how can people really be undecided when so much had gone on in the six weeks before the election. Those folks also just might not want to say why they are not voting for Barack.

Pennsylvania you had your chance and missed it when you had a chance to be in the history books again as you led this Country in our early years. Now those of you who voted for the politic of the past will have to relegate yourselves to obscurity. New voters of Pennsylvania, help lead your State and Country. Don't give up on the political process. Stay involved, as yours is a noble path.

Is a 2 State Solution now possible for the Palestinian territory?

The 2 State solution much touted by the Bush and Clinton Administration did not have that solution to be 2 States. Gaza and the West Bank, but it looks like that is what is developing. When there is no diplomacy on the ground, the parties will create a new dynamic that eventually will draw us in, dragging our feet and whinning the entire time.

Sen. Joe Leiberman - Promoting America's agenda or Israel's?

This morning it is reported that Sen. Lieberman says, the United States should consider a military strike against Iran because of Tehran's involvement in Iraq. "We've got to be prepared to take aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing Americans in Iraq," Lieberman said. "And to me, that would include a strike over the border into Iran, where we have good evidence that they have a base at which they are training these people coming back into Iraq to kill our soldiers."

Hawkish Lieberman isn't pushing things we would see as in America's vital interest, but he always does seem to promote Israel's agenda. I have wondered for many years whether Joe was a secret Agent of Israel acting as if he had the interest of our country as his top priority. He has not been hawkish when it relates to areas not on Israel's agenda except when did break with President Clinton and sponsored a resolution with Bob Dole to break the United Nations embargo on sending arms to Bosnia.

Al Gore in the 2004 election shocked everyone when he decided to support Howard Dean for President in 2004, snubbing Senator Lieberman. I always wondered why he snubbed his running mate. But apparently Gore saw something he didn't like in Lieberman. Gore has been right in most things including Global Warming. I think he was right about Joe too. Joe, start to put America first and stop trying to get the U.S. involved in hostilities that would support Israel. We will come to Israel's defense should that day be necessary, but let's not use war as the first option we choose as a country. Where's your push for talks with Iran?

If you want to read the entire article on Lieberman on Iran click here.

Republican and Democratic Presidents: We need both!

The world changes daily, some say for the best, but many say for the worst. It takes many years to reap the benefits and consequences of America's foreign policy acts of commission and omission. One thing is for sure, the President we have has a lot to do with what we reap. Just as a child, at times we need a Critical Parent, who watches over us, protects us, tells us of dangers and says “Be Careful”, warns us of danger and fights many battles for us with the bully's of the world. Other times we need the Nurturing Parent who inspires us to greatness, kisses our minor wounds and tells us we'll be OK, helps us develop the value of helping others of less means, comforts us when we are distressed, making peace with others for us when we've gotten into trouble.

Some of us had 2 parents and that each could provide either type of parenting when necessary. Some have only 1 parent that tries to provide each for us. Only whole parents can provide each types. Some have a dominant side they use most of the time. Well, as a country what we need today is not a Critical Parent President, but that is what we have and have had for the past 6 plus years. The Republican President of late, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are the Critical Parents of our time. George Bush's father was too, but was able to be a Nurturing Parent. Bill Clinton was more a Nurturing Parent type (I feel your pain) but was able to use force when necessary in Bosnia etc., so he had both, although many of the George Bush Critical Parent types said he didn’t do enough to go after Al Qaeda and Bin Laden.

The problem is that, as a society, we often bounce off the bumper guards of each extreme. As we watch the debates, what we need to do is to look for qualities of both in our Presidential candidates. We certainly don't need more fear mongering but do we need someone who can go out there and rebuild international relationships. The world needs this of us now. That means ending wars as our first reaction to international problems but not abandoning other means when all else fails. When you watch both Republican and Democratic debates going forward watch for the nurturing type and the bully and choose wisely. Something in between seems what would best serve America and the World.

Renditions- Understanding the complexity of the issues.

C-Span covered a great committee meeting on April 17th regarding Extraordinary Renditions with testimony from several members from the British Parliament, as well as officers of the E.U. Rep. William Delahunt (D), Chair of the Committee, engaged along with Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) of California and others, in questioning Dr. Michael Scheuer, our former CIA head of the effort to get Osama Bin Laden under President Clinton. To educate yourself on the specifics on Renditions, this is must viewing. The exchange was brutally honest and all sides of the issue were articulated with an honesty not usually front and center in Washington. It is not so easy to find absolutes. It was one of the best Committee hearings I have heard on C-Span.

The Europeans find themselves wanting to advise us and raise our image in the world for their own good interests as much needs to be done by us and our allies and that would seem a good thing. However, what I learned is that nothing is that simple. It is much more complicated.

Watch the C-Span recording on the committee meeting and you won't be disappointed. But be prepared it is long but well worth it.

UPDATE: To access this hearing on Real Player search the C-Span archives dated for April 17, 2007 under the title of "House Hearing on Transatlantic Relations"

Spineless Democrats

It is obvious the politicians are far behind where the American people are regarding the Iraq war and Border Security. But it seems that they are more worried about the inevitable spin that could discredit them from archenemy Karl Rove, than they worry about American voter's outrage. They have miscalculated again. Many of them won't be around in the next election cycle, as more courageous politicians will unseat them too. The sea change is coming and, as powerful as a tsunami, it will take timid Democrats in its path along with Republicans.

The clamor for impeachment is being heard in new places. The idea that impeachment is a waste of time is being challenged, as many believe, as I do, that impeachment is not only worth pursuing, it is the only way to gain back credibility for America with the rest of the world, especially our remaining friends. But, it is going to take many more of us to speak out. It can start by you having the courage to write your Congressmen and Senators and posing the fact that impeachment is worthwhile. If there were ever a time in our history where High Crimes and Misdemeanors were committed it has been by President Bush and VP Cheney. These Crimes make Clinton's transgressions look like Kindergarden antics compared to this Administration's subversion of the Constitution.

But to show real courage, you will need to start a conversation with friends and family over the idea. This will take a Village. The real question for you is this, What is it going to take by this President and VP for you to call for impeachment, as they have given us plenty of reasons already?