Market Summary for May 4th and looking ahead

The markets are getting many to believe that they better get in as the train is leaving the station, but they are still timid, as low Volume says they are still waiting. There definitely is nibbling going on. I look at Insider trading daily and notice that the Insiders are still selling to raise cash, over buying, by a large dollar volume. My guess is that Hedge Funds may need to raise cash too and so there will be some selloffs into rallies but not to scare us. That is why this advance is so steady. It has not had the volatility one would expect given the past 6 months. The VIX index has been steady between 34-39 and much lower than the upper 40's to 50's level it had been at. The new money has come from funding of retirement accounts by April 15th but some will put this money into more secure investments and so this source of money to drive the market higher is about spent.

The Put to Call ratio is hanging more closer to the lows of the past 6 months than the highs from around 0.65-0.85. We are in the Dow range of 7,800 to 9,300 level we had been in before hitting the lows of 6,440. I do not see us going to 9,000 on this move up. I do see it at about 8,500-8,600 max and then a pullback. So I have decided to hold on to TZA and FAZ and ride this move up to its conclusion. I know when I am tempted to sell without supporting data, in this case high volume, we are close to the market move in the other direction. Therefore, I will Hold and not sell my ETF's, TZA and FAZ, but wait for them to be back in favor.