Thursday, June 25, 2009

Market summary for June 25 and chart

I know many are wondering what is going on in the stock market, as I am reporting bad news but the market is rising. It is confusing indeed. But the way to keep a proper perspective is to have an overall long term view to determine what is really going on. In that vein, I have prepared a 2 year chart of the Dow as you can see below. The most important part to focus on is the fact that even though the Dow had a 173 point rally, the closing price is still below the downtrend line and as long as that continues to be true we are headed lower. And the Dow is still below its 200 day Moving average. So I am not blowing smoke at you. Facts are facts in this world of emotions.

Volume was below Monday and Tuesday's volume today but slightly more than yesterday's volume. The VIX closed down dramatically to 26.36, down almost 10%. The Put to Call ratio closed at 0.89, so there was nothing telling with that data. I have not lost confidence that my prediction of a down market will happen, so there is no change in my views with the market rise today. There would need to be a sustained rally to a higher high on increased volume for me to change my outlook. For now I stand pat.

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