Summary of Blog statistics for the past 6 years

I have been writing a Blog now since May of 2005. In that time, I have written over 1650 Blog posts and had a total of 80,000 Visitors to my site who read 125,000 pages in total. I'm someone who never wrote anything other than an occasional letter to the editor, because I considered myself not to be a writer. So much for limiting self perceptions.

I wrote about politics for the first several years years exclusively, then a mix of financial posts and finally some stock market analysis these recent years.

Thanks all of you for visiting this site. I hope you got what you came for. I got what I wanted out of doing this, the joy of self expression and the uncensored views I hold about the subject matters i have chosen to write about.

Market summary for May 20th, 2010

Well, as shown in the charts above, it was a heck of a volatile day. I had said I thought the VIX Index was going to hit 40 again in my May Blog post. Today we blew past 40 and went as high as 46.37 before closing at 45.79, an increase of 30% from the previous day's close. The Dow closed near the low's of the day closing at 10,068, which is a loss of 376 points. Also, the candlestick pattern had a lower shadow meaning that this is not the low and tomorrow the markets should go at least lower, most likely testing the 10,000 level again.


The Put to Call ratio hit extreme levels intraday today of 1.64 at 10:30am EST and closing at a high of 1.53, which we haven't seen since October 6th, 2008, as shown in the chart above. Also, on April 14th, I posted the Put to Call ratio as being the lowest in years and it could be a sell signal. On April 15th I again stated I believed we were headed now for the long awaited correction and advised that this was the time to hedge. Since this 1.53 level is at such an extreme, we may see a rally tomorrow going into the close and the weekend. Tomorrow is Options Expiration for May but I think most of the volatility has occurred today and tomorrow should be calmer with less volatility. The candlestick pattern of today does not mark a reversal. Watch tomorrow's pattern for that indicator. Looking at the 2 year Dow chart, you can see the extreme reading of 1.51 was the beginning of the drop of the Dow to the very lows. While I see some small rallies within the Dow over a day or two as normal market movement, I do see we are now headed to retest the lows of the Dow of 6,440 and I believe we will fail to hold there. Strategies of buying Put Options, or ETF's that are Ultra Shorts, can help make you some money. But you just can't beat having a large cash position, sitting this drop out and then buying when the market reverses. If you are not skilled in these tools, you might just better be in cash and wait it out. Talk to your Financial advisor.

Note: If you can't read the charts, trying enlarging them. Also try clicking on any one to enlarge.

Market summary for Nov. 19th

Just a short entry today on the stock market action. First, it is clear we did go up above the 3 year downtrend line I have been discussing in many several previous posts. (see Nov. 14th post) Secondly, the candlestick pattern for all 3 indexes was a "Hammer" pattern. I was looking at the 6 month Dow chart, as shown above and the more easily seen 1 month chart and noticed that this Hammer pattern has not occurred on the way up in the entire 6 month chart. It is easier to see what a Hammer pattern looks like from today's close in the 1 month chart. The significance of the Hammer pattern is that it usually signals the end of a trend. In this case it is the up trend the Dow has had now for many months. Let's see if there is follow through over the next few weeks.

Market summary for week ending Oct. 2nd

Well the stock market closed the week down for the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500. I have provided 2 charts. The first is from week ending Sept. 26th and the second is this weeks. You can see that while we have dropped this week, we by no means dropped enough to show any new predictions. We stayed between the 2 blue lines going closer to the one on the bottom of the range. You can see it is going to take yet another week or two before any clear determination can be made as to future direction. The Bears were celebrating after the higher Unemployment numbers came out today following lower ISM numbers earlier in this week. But their celebration was short lived as the market surprised most and was actually in the green for a significant portion of the day before closing down.

I had said back in August that the correction would come by the 3rd Friday of the month and this could be when we really know what is going to be the trend. And with each passing day the trend line from the highs of a 3 year chart of the Dow keeps butting up against the upper blue trend line. On the Uptrend line, the lower Blue line, if we break below that line we most likely will correct down to the 7,800-8,000 level. Now we just wait and see what the future will be. There isn't much news coming this week to bolster the Bulls case. And there is always the possibility of a negative surprise moving the markets lower. It doesn't have to be news from America but from anywhere in the world. Have a nice weekend.

Market summary for June 25 and chart

I know many are wondering what is going on in the stock market, as I am reporting bad news but the market is rising. It is confusing indeed. But the way to keep a proper perspective is to have an overall long term view to determine what is really going on. In that vein, I have prepared a 2 year chart of the Dow as you can see below. The most important part to focus on is the fact that even though the Dow had a 173 point rally, the closing price is still below the downtrend line and as long as that continues to be true we are headed lower. And the Dow is still below its 200 day Moving average. So I am not blowing smoke at you. Facts are facts in this world of emotions.



Volume was below Monday and Tuesday's volume today but slightly more than yesterday's volume. The VIX closed down dramatically to 26.36, down almost 10%. The Put to Call ratio closed at 0.89, so there was nothing telling with that data. I have not lost confidence that my prediction of a down market will happen, so there is no change in my views with the market rise today. There would need to be a sustained rally to a higher high on increased volume for me to change my outlook. For now I stand pat.

Market summary for June 17, 2009

The Market closed mixed today and the change was insignificant in all three Indexes. However, the big news to me today was that the Put to Call ratio closed at 1.13 which is the highest it has been in a long time. As a matter of fact, within the first 1/2 hour, the Put to Call ratio hit a high of 1.41. From the chart above you can see where that would have been, if it closed there. But still, 1.13 is getting up there.

I expect this to go higher before the market closes on Friday as Options are expiring each day. Today, VIX, VXN, RVX Options all have expired. Tomorrow morning settled index options cease trading. And on Friday, Expiring equity, P.M. settled index options and treasury/interest rate option classes cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 p.m. EST. The Quarterly Options Expiration doesn't occur until June 30th.

The volume for the Dow today was still significantly lower than the Moving average, but it was equal to yesterday's. The Nasdaq seems to have equal volume to its moving average. The Nasdaq gained 11 points today, the Dow lost 8 points and the S&P500 lost 2 points. The trend is still down for 2 out of 3 Indexes and the Dow has now fallen back below its 200 day Moving average. The S&P 500 is still above its 200 day MA but it is very close to going back below it again. The Nasdaq still has plenty of room above its 200 day MA.

Volatility was somewhat lighter today as the VIX closed at 31.54 today, down slightly from 32.68, which was yesterday's close.

Data announced in pre-market today was the CPI (Cost of Living Index). Many investors have been discussing perceived inflation concerns. But today, the CPI index came in at +0.1%, hardly inflationary. Yet many worry that eventually the heavy spending by the Treasury and the Fed flooding the market by printing as many dollars as the presses can turn out. I am sure eventually we will need to worry about inflation, but every sign I see is that we are still in a deflationary period. Everyone is dropping prices in hopes to gain more volume and sustain profits. But the Consumer is deaf to these announcements and continue to save cash rather than spend. As long as this continues, this economy is not going to recover anytime soon. You may not believe this but the best way of testing this premise is to ask yourself the question, Am I spending as much now as I did a year ago and am I going to be spending more over the next 6 months? Anyone want to respond, click on the word Comments and add your opinion as to how you are answering this question. Please also leave the name of the State you are living in currently.

Also, please don't forget to take the Mini Poll on how long you think the recession will last. Thanks!