Several US Indexes drop below 200 day Moving Average. (UPDATE)

Many US Indexes are now below their 200 day Moving Averages. These include the S&P 500, the Russell 2000. The Dow's 200 day MA is currently at 11,995, so we aren't far from it now. The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 2710 and we are not far from that as well. So look for these 2 indexes to get there this week. Whether the 200 day MA proves to be a strong resistance to climb back above will have to be seen. Much depends on the outlook for GDP for this 3rd quarter. But the trend now is not good and it appears the market and the Dow will not have its expected strong rally to 14,000 any time soon.

UPDATE: 10:50am PST

The Dow and Nasdaq have both now gone below their 200 day Moving Averages. The Dow has hit a low at 11961 while the Nasdaq has gone as low as 2696, which means all major US Indexes are below their 200 Day moving average.

Summary of Projections versus actuals for economic data released this week

This is a summary of the economic data released this week along with what the expectations were for this data.


Monday, July 26th
10:00am EST. New Home Sales for June. Forecast is 295K and the prior month reading was 300K.
Actuals: 330K

Tuesday, July 27th
10:00am EST. Consumer Confidence for July. Forecast is 51.0 and the prior month was 52.9.
Actuals: 50.4

Wednesday, July 28th
8:30am EST. Durable Goods Orders for June. Forecast is +1.0% and the prior month was -0.6%
8:30am EST. Durable Goods orders ex Transportation. Forecast is +0.5% and prior month was +1.6%
2:00pm EST Fed's Beige Book.
Actuals: Durable Goods -1.0%
Actuals: Durable Goods ex Transports -0.6%

Thursday, July 29th
8:30am EST. Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast is for 450K and the prior week was 464K.
8:30am EST. Continuing Claims. Forecast is for 4.550 Million and prior week was 4.487 Million
2:00pm EST. Fed's Beige Book.
Actuals: Initial Claims 475K
Actuals: Continuing Claims 4.565 Million

Friday, July 30th
8:30am EST. GDP for Q2. Forecast is for 3.0% and Prior was 2.7%. Market is expecting 2.5%.
8:30am EST. Chain Deflator for Q2. Forecast is 0.7% and prior period was 1.1%
8:30am EST. Employment Cost Index for Q2. Forecast is 0.5% and prior period was 0.6%
9:45am EST. Chicago PMI for July. Forecast is for 58.5 and prior month was 59.1
9:55am EST. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment for July. Forecast is 67.5 and prior month was 66.5
Actuals: GDP 2.4%
Actuals: Chain Deflator 1.8%

The remaining data will be added as it becomes available today on Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence.

UPDATE:
Actuals: Chicago PMI 62.3
Actuals: Univ. of Michigan Sentiment 67.8

3rd Quarter Final GDP numbers

CNBC reported this morning that the final GDP numbers came in at 2.8% versus a preliminary number reported a month ago at 3.5% 3Q Final sales numbers came in at 1.9% versus 2.5% preliminary numbers. So after some time when we were all excited because it looked like we had a 3.5% GDP, and the "Green Chutes" were everywhere, it looks like it wasn't that good after-all.

Business investment was down 4.1% for 3Q according to the numbers released today.

I believe we will hear a similar story on Monday morning when Retail Sales are reported for the Friday and saturday after Thanksgiving. It too will be revised downward after a few weeks into December. This entire season is being manipulated to get people to spend and save businesses. There isn't anything wrong with trying to save businesses if you have some money to spend. It's just that the average houshold doesn't have any right now. And 20% of them are unemployed as well.