Mini Poll Summary for Dec. 2009 on the question, "How long do you believe this recession will last?"

The final results for the 2009 Mini Poll are done and now tabulated. So first, here's the question asked: "How long do you believe this recession will last?" For the month of December there were 33% that see it will be much longer than 2012 and another 33% who believe we are going to be in a Depression. There were 13% who believe it is over now at yearend 2009, and various smaller percentages for 2010, 2011 and 2012 to make up to 100%.

These numbers are interesting because this voting took place during the month people do their Christmas shopping. While the sample size of the vote was only 24, it was interesting how gloomy many see the future.

3rd Quarter Final GDP numbers

CNBC reported this morning that the final GDP numbers came in at 2.8% versus a preliminary number reported a month ago at 3.5% 3Q Final sales numbers came in at 1.9% versus 2.5% preliminary numbers. So after some time when we were all excited because it looked like we had a 3.5% GDP, and the "Green Chutes" were everywhere, it looks like it wasn't that good after-all.

Business investment was down 4.1% for 3Q according to the numbers released today.

I believe we will hear a similar story on Monday morning when Retail Sales are reported for the Friday and saturday after Thanksgiving. It too will be revised downward after a few weeks into December. This entire season is being manipulated to get people to spend and save businesses. There isn't anything wrong with trying to save businesses if you have some money to spend. It's just that the average houshold doesn't have any right now. And 20% of them are unemployed as well.

Market outlook: More of the same for the foreseeable future.

More of the same for the foreseeable future. That isn't too encouraging for those long the market but with ADP's jobs numbers coming in at a loss of 298,000 jobs, things aren't going to get much better. They had expected a job loss of only 213,000 jobs.

Yesterday, the Dow had dropped 185 for the day and at one time it was down 199 points. The put to call ratio is now at 0.93 and the VIX (Volatility Index) closed at 29.15, up 3.14 points. This is the highest it has been since the beginning of July.

I am still holding the ETF Triple Short Bear Funds, TZA and FAZ. Yesterday TZA closed at 15.76, up almost 7 % for the day and this with the highest volume it has had in 6 months. FAZ closed at 26.39, up almost 14% for the day, with its highest volume also in more than 6 months.

As I have said many times, I expect the market to be in a correction mode till October Options Expiration. We are headed lower most likely back to 7,800-8,000 or so and depending on the economic indicators projected for the 4th quarter this year, we could test 6,400 sometime in the first quarter, possibly as early as January when Christmas Retail Sales numbers will become evident.