Put to Call ratio for 2011 in focus

I thought today I would show a chart of the Put to Call ratio for all of 2011 with special focus on last week's movement. The chart below indicates this past week's movement in blue. The put to call ratio is an important indicator for me as it often indicates the best time to buy and sell stocks.

The reading on this past Tuesday of 1.15 had not been hit since March 16th, when the ratio hit a high of 1.18. You can see from the Dow chart of March 2011 below, that on March 16th the market hit a low and then then within 2 days started a rally. The data point was actually a Buy signal, if you were paying attention that day. From that point, the market rallied a minimum 7 % to this past Tuesday or if you sold a little earlier with a gain of 1000 on the Dow, you would have made a profit of 8.6%, which is very good in only a few months.

Now looking at where we are on the Dow chart below for the month of May, you will see the Dow's action for this past Tuesday the 16th, when the Put to Call reached a high of 1.15, that the chart pattern for the last 3 days May 18th-20th is different than that of March 16th in the chart above. I would look for another drop in the market this week going below the May 17th low. We shall see if the phrase "Sell in May" comes true!

March Mini Poll data summary: How long will recession last?

Here is a summary of the Mini Poll data for March as compared to December, January and February.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February and March:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes and for March 39 votes.

The largest change in the data showed that many now believe that we will go into a Depression.

Now March had one major voter voting more than once during the month and they voted for the Mid 2009. I took out the duplicate those duplicate votes in the data above.

I have cleared the data accumulated from the Mini poll so feel free anytime this month to enter again when you believe the recession will end. We can all see how the results change over time. I wish more would vote as with a bigger sample size it would become more statistically relevant but I am appreciative for those of you who do vote so thanks!