I'm just saying.......

I heard the President's speech to America tonight and I was wondering, or should I say, I'm just saying, If the 2 journalists were shot instead of being beheaded would we as a Country do what President Obama has committed us to do? I think not! Dead is dead and while it is a horrific way to end ones life, is it necessary to commit the United States to an unending continuing conflict in the Middle East again? You tell me!

Stock market summary and look ahead.

As predicted in yesterday's post, the markets sold off. The Dow closed down 303 points to 10,992, again breaking below the 11,000 level. Looking at the 3 month chart of the Dow, it has been easier for the Dow to go below 11,000 than it has to go over 11,500. The pressure is to the down side. And all the news is to the downside as well. You can see from the chart below that the blue line of the 400 day MA is proving to be resistance as well.

A big test for the Dow is soon coming. The 52 week low is at 10,458 and this will be tested and new lows will be set, in my opinion.

I was at a Berkeley Art Gallery (ACCI) opening show for some of my wife's art and her friends last night. It was a good show. One of the artist husbands and I were discussing the big drop in the market yesterday and he suggested that the drop was because of President Obama's speech. I suggested that this was not the reason for the drop and that it was the European Central Bank's Chief Economist quitting over disagreement with the purchasing of Eurobonds by the ECB. (read yesterday's post). European turmoil will continue to lead our markets direction and I fully expect it to get worse with all markets eventually returning to test the lows of 2009. This level corresponds to 6,400 on the Dow, 675 on the S&P 500 and 1300 on the Nasdaq.

Caution is the word going forward. If you are in cash, you have no worries about the market. If you are long this market I would be protecting my assets by either selling some stocks and taking some money out of the market, or I would hedge my longs with some shorts or even buying some ETF's which go in the opposite direction of their underlying stock Index. This is no time to be taking big risks. The Put to Call ratio has been over 1.00 for the past 29 out of 31 trading days. That is extraordinary!

Market comments for the week ahead: Germany in focus

The market ended the week down. Many did not want to go into the weekend holding stocks, because any news in Europe can quickly devastate stocks here. So caution is the rule, especially in September and October, the 2 most volatile months for the stock market. This morning's charts have a new discovery for me. I have the usual 200 day Moving Average lines drawn on the chart but also have included a 400 day Moving Average line, as well. As you can see from the 4 major Indexes below, it looks like the 400 day MA is the resistance line for the market and can give someone a better gauge as to whether to believe market moves or not. The last move up proves now to be a false Bear trap as anyone now knows after buying stocks when they appeared to be breaking above the downtrend line drawn in previous posts of a week ago. Here are today's charts.




This last chart below clearly shows that the last move up was a Bear trap for those unsuspecting traders. They would be wise to stay on the sidelines and watch rather than lose their money. This zig zag pattern downtrend will continue as there is no good news coming in the world as it pertains to their economies and this coming Wednesday all eyes will be not on the Republican debate but on Germany's vote as to whether they will be bailing out other countries. Watch this news as it will move our markets more than any other news.

Germany's Merkel is vulnerable to losing control. This analysis from Berlin:
"Merkel's coalition has a comfortable 20-seat majority in the lower house of parliament. But if she is hit with dissent in her own ranks, and is forced to rely on opposition parties to pass legislation to expand the single currency bloc's rescue mechanism -- the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) -- then her coalition could collapse, sparking early elections.

'The euro crisis entered a new phase over the past week,' influential German weekly Der Spiegel said on Sunday.

'Before the main question had been how the common currency could be saved. Now it is also about saving Merkel's chancellorship. If her coalition does not deliver a majority for the enhanced euro rescue mechanism in the autumn, people close to the chancellor say, the coalition is all but finished."

So this is what to watch on Wednesday. Good luck in the market next week and don't forget to watch President Obama's speech to Congress on Thursday evening on his Jobs program proposal.

Bush says "Our entire economy is at risk!"

President Bush spoke to the Nation tonight finally, after 10 days have elapsed since the Bear Sterns bailout. This was not something this President wanted to do. The reason is not obvious but it puts the final cap on his tortured legacy. I wrote this post in January 2007 and is prophetic tonight. Here is what I wrote then:

"Title:Bush's experience taught him only one thing- How to be a failure and disappointment!

The only thing this President seems to have learned from his past is how to create bankruptcy conditions.

1) He bankrupt his Oil company. From those painful experiences, unfortunately he started in his Presidency to create the same conditions for the Nation by the following:
2) He is bankrupting our Country with debt
3) He has bankrupt our Military - both equipment wise and manpower strength
4) He has bankrupt our Freedoms with such actions as eavesdropping on phone conversations of any American without FISA Court approval, signing statements which defy laws he has signed into law and other Unconstitutional acts.
5) He has bankrupt our Trust in oversight with a Republican led Congress that turned their head away at his choices, while they held their noses from the stench.
6) He has bankrupt our Trust in a fair Judicial system, by appointing Justices that will approve of his antics and rewrite history as far as settled law.
7) He has bankrupt the Vision for millions of people around the world who thought of the USA as a place of Hope and replaced that Vision as a country of arrogance and spite for our friends as well as our enemies.
8) He has bankrupt the use of Diplomacy, as no country believes him nor trusts him anymore. We are mostly alone in the world now. Colin Powell's speech will go down in history as how the US distorted truth for the self interest of a few of its leaders; the President and the Vice President.
9) He has bankrupt our willingness to be eager for the words of our President, when he gives a speech or an address to the Nation. We are weary of his lies and twisted truth to us.
10) He has bankrupt and shattered the idea of our President being a Statesman. He does not show intellect nor the pursuit of noble causes to help the poor of the world nor in stopping wars and promoting peace in the world.

Need I go on! Shame, shame, shame Mr. President. We need a “Tough Love” intervention called IMPEACHMENT."

Not much has changed has it. Except since I wrote this we are now in peril of economic failure as a Country. In 45 days we get to replace him and his policies, or not. It depends if people have the courage to vote for and elect Barack Obama

Barack's speech on Race - Historical and here

Barack Obama's speech on Race was the most profound speech made over the past 40-50 years. Watch the video of his speech by clicking here.

Only a man like Barack could have had the credibility to have given this speech because of his personal background of a White Mother and Black Father. This was Barack at his best. Not only was he authentic and a great contrast to Hillary and McCain, what he said was believable and spoke across the racial divide. Bravo!

Obama's 2002 speech: Good judgment when it mattered

In 2002 Barack Obama made a speech that many have not read or heard that helps distinguish the candidate from Hillary. Here is his speech from 2002. Remember this was only 1 year from being attacked on 9-11 while the mood in the country was fear.

"Against Going to War With Iraq," by Barack Obama, Oct. 2, 2002


“Good afternoon. Let me begin by saying that although this has been
billed as an anti-war rally, I stand before you as someone who is not
opposed to war in all circumstances. The Civil War was one of the
bloodiest in history, and yet it was only through the crucible of the
sword, the sacrifice of multitudes, that we could begin to perfect
this union, and drive the scourge of slavery from our soil. I don’t
oppose all wars.

My grandfather signed up for a war the day after Pearl Harbor was
bombed, fought in Patton’s army. He saw the dead and dying across the

fields of Europe; he heard the stories of fellow troops who first
entered Auschwitz and Treblinka. He fought in the name of a larger
freedom, part of that arsenal of democracy that triumphed over evil,
and he did not fight in vain. I don’t oppose all wars.

After September 11th, after witnessing the carnage and destruction,
the dust and the tears, I supported this administration’s pledge to
hunt down and root out those who would slaughter innocents in the
name of intolerance, and I would willingly take up arms myself to
prevent such tragedy from happening again. I don’t oppose all wars.
And I know that in this crowd today, there is no shortage of
patriots, or of patriotism.

What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash
war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and
Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this
administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our
throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships
borne.

What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove
to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty
rate, a drop in the median income - to distract us from corporate
scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst
month since the Great Depression. That’s what I’m opposed to. A
dumb
war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on
principle but on politics. Now let me be clear - I suffer no
illusions about Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal man. A ruthless man. A
man who butchers his own people to secure his own power. He has
repeatedly defied UN resolutions, thwarted UN inspection teams,
developed chemical and biological weapons, and coveted nuclear
capacity. He’s a bad guy. The world, and the Iraqi people, would be
better off without him.

But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to
the United States, or to his neighbors, that the Iraqi economy is in
shambles, that the Iraqi military a fraction of its former strength,
and that in concert with the international community he can be
contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away
into the dustbin of history. I know that even a successful war
against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at
undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an
invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong
international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East,
and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab
world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of Al Qaeda. I am not
opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.

So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our
children, let us send a clear message to the President today. You
want a fight, President Bush? Let’s finish the fight with Bin Laden
and Al Qaeda, through effective, coordinated intelligence, and a
shutting down of the financial networks that support terrorism, and a
homeland security program that involves more than color-coded
warnings. You want a fight, President Bush?

Let’s fight to make sure that the UN inspectors can do their work,
and that we vigorously enforce a non-proliferation treaty, and that
former enemies and current allies like Russia safeguard and
ultimately eliminate their stores of nuclear material, and that
nations like Pakistan and India never use the terrible weapons
already in their possession, and that the arms merchants in our own
country stop feeding the countless wars that rage across the globe.
You want a fight, President Bush?

Let’s fight to make sure our so-called allies in the Middle East, the

Saudis and the Egyptians, stop oppressing their own people, and
suppressing dissent, and tolerating corruption and inequality, and
mismanaging their economies so that their youth grow up without
education, without prospects, without hope, the ready recruits of
terrorist cells. You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to
wean ourselves off Middle East oil, through an energy policy that
doesn’t simply serve the interests of Exxon and Mobil. Those are the

battles that we need to fight. Those are the battles that we
willingly join. The battles against ignorance and intolerance.
Corruption and greed. Poverty and despair.

The consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable. We may
have occasion in our lifetime to once again rise up in defense of our
freedom, and pay the wages of war. But we ought not — we will not —

travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who
would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the
full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful
sacrifice in vain.”


Barack Obama, Oct. 2, 2002