Remembering 9/11, then and now at the stock market.

As we stop and pause and consider the events of 9/11, on this 10th anniversary, there isn't much I can say as I find myself as speechless as I was on that day, having watched it live on TV that morning. The world stops and remembers those who lost their lives, but the world does moves on, thank God.

I remembered the aftermath and the fact the stock market was closed for about a week and when it opened we took a big hit. The Dow had been as high then as 11,500, but it dropped sharply and over days and weeks went as low as 7,000.

This morning I have put together a 2 year chart of the Dow which will show the the tightening range we have been within the past month. The red lines on the chart below show this range tightening. The triangle is pointing to a further downward trend. The top red line shows that we had a trend headed down and that even though we broke to the upside, we resumed this trend over the past month as the red line was drawn to touch those peaks.

Where are we headed? Well I have drawn the blue arrow indicating where I think it's going and that is down. Could we go down as low as Dow 7,000 ? Yes and unfortunately we can go lower. Not a positive picture of things to come, but the world has changed since 9/11 and it's not been for the better.


The chart below covers June1, 2001 through Dec. 31, 2001 and shows the decline of the markets in the aftermath of 9/11.

Market comments for Sept. 9th, 2011

Many aren't sure about whether the market will close down or rally later today. You can bet that because of what's happening in Europe on the debt crisis and because it it the 9/11 10th anniversary, it will close down. Add the fact that there is a terrorist warning and you have a recipe for many to dump stocks today. The ECB has confirmed the resignation of its Chief Economist J. Stark over issues on Eurobonds. This caused markets in Europe to drop sharply. Mr. Stark, one of the ECB's most outspoken anti-inflation "hawks" had opposed the ECB's decision last month to reactivate its government bond purchase program, as did the head of Germany's central bank, Jens Weidmann. To read more on this from the Wall St. Journal Europe, click here.

In Financial news, Consumer credit increased in July according to data released yesterday. For a context, June's data showed Consumer Credit at $11.3 Billion. Expectations were for this to be down to $5.0 Billion for July. Instead July's number came in at $12.0 Billion.

Today's release of Wholesale Inventories showed an increase of 0.8%, Expectations were for a 0.7% number for July. June's data came in at 0.6%.

Fed Chairman Bernanke did not reassure markets yesterday. Many are looking for the Fed to announce a QE3, but so far they haven't.

President Obama gave his fiery job's speech last night to Congress. It was one of his best speeches on this topic of his Presidency. The real question is whether any real action will come out of the speech and get approved by this Republican controlled Congress.

President Obama does what President Bush couldn't do, find and kill Osama Bin Laden!

What a terrific day it is with Osama Bin Laden getting his due justice for our 9/11 attack of the World Trade Towers. I must make a political statement about this today. So here it is:

From Sept. 11th 2001 until the election of President Obama, 8 years went by. The news reports that it was 5 years ago that the compound was built in Pakistan, which was where Bin Laden was hiding. Then President Obama was elected with the worse financial fiasco since the Great Depression and not only has President Obama saved us from a Depression, but under his leadership and direction, our forces were able to kill Bin Laden too. God Bless President Obama, the soldiers who went on the mission to kill Bin Laden, but also all the men and women serving our military and their families. I also want to song the praises of Leon Panetta, as head of the CIA for the fine work and of all our intelligent services

Where did the vitriol start and who started it? UPDATE

On this day of remembrance of all those who lost their lives unnecessarily in the attack on our nation at the World Trade Center, I gave thought to that time and how we were as a people. After the attack we came together as a nation, even though before 9/11 we were divided politically by the election of George W. Bush by the Supreme Court decision over Al Gore. It was a bitter pill for Democrats and some Independents to swallow and it lasted right up to 9/11. But then everything changed. We were all saddened by the loss of life and angry that we were attacked by terrorists. But there was now our President on the pile of debris from the fallen Towers telling the world we are going to get through this because we are Americans and we are a strong people and that we would find the people who did this and bring them to justice. It was a solemn moment in our history and we were all united as Americans right after that, maybe for the first time for many Americans, but I had seen it before. When President John Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, TX, we were together then too. The best of the American spirit was shown then too and the outpouring of sadness we all felt and a tribute to the loss of our President and the fact we all knew then the world had changed for us. There were no Republicans and Democrats then. We were all Americans and we were a strong people and that we would find the people who did this and bring them to justice.

Here we are on the Anniversary of 9/11, a very solemn day, and what's on many American's hearts today. I'll tell you, it's idiocy about whether a pastor in Florida will burn the Holy Book of Muslims or not. And, whether the Imam in NY will move his plans for building a Community center, which will contain a mosque, 2 blocks away from the site of the Twin Towers. The Republicans have been connecting the two separate issues even though the Pastor in Fl had not. But then, he finally got there message that there is a connection as Palin, Boehner, and Gingrich have been trying to connect those dots for the weak minded among us for the past week. It's a disgrace. First there is no comparison. Burning anyone's Holy Book is weak minded and not something a so called minister of God would do. But again, he had not connected these dots until these Republican leaders pointed it out to him.

Where do these nut jobs come from? They come from the shadows, where evil lurks all the time but is usually in check when there is balance of spirit and mind between people. But that spirit has been missing for a while now. I was trying to think when did it all change recently? I figured it out. It was when John McCain picked Sarah Palin, as his Vice Presidential candidate. She was not ready for prime time, or any time in my view, but here we are with her leading the whack jobs of the fringe of the Republican party and getting support from the other whack jobs of Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck and driving our country into madness. And the fools who listen to them get hyped up and do their bidding and think in the shadows about "coming out". And every once in a while one comes out ie. the Pastor in Florida.

But this vitriol started during the campaign for President and by the selection of Sarah Palin, by John McCain. John McCain, the same leader who said "Country first!" and has abandoned about everything he has stood for over his career as a Senator. The same John McCain who said he was a maverick and now said he wasn't a maverick. Make up your mind please, John. Now it was the perfect storm because opposing John McCain was Barack Obama. That helped bring out the racists among us. But you see Barack Obama, in my humble opinion, has done nothing to fuel this divisiveness. He was born from a white mother and a black father. So what? What's the big deal. Get over it and join the 21st Century. Most kids have. Many don't see color distinction, as their older parents do.

I am afraid we have lost that special moment when we were all together as Americans. But when I think about the meaning to me of 9/11, I wish we could go back to that moment in our hearts and stop this divisiveness. It is killing our country now. How you can help? Change your mindset. If you are still embracing the notion that our country is special and what it means to be an American. then you should think that if someone owns a piece of property and wants to develop it and build anything they want they should be allowed to as long as it follows local ordinances and laws. They have a right to build the Community Center and include a mosque in it if they so choose. We should be pleased we live in a country where we can express our religious freedoms in whatever way we want to as long as it doesn't do physical harm to others. By the way, people have been praying in the existing mosque there since 2009, just to set the record straight.

As for the whack job Pastor in Fl., it is a very difficult situation for sure. In this 24/7 news cycle with Social Networks bringing pictures and videos all around the world. One could make the case that he is endangering others and it is illegal, just like yelling Fire in a crowded theater. The world won't end if he does this and some may die too as General Petraeus has warned. But that will be on the Pastors head before God as well as those Republicans who have not condemned the possible act, Palin, Boehner and Gingrich. May God have mercy on their souls.

UPDATE: 10:20am PST

I don't know what has happened by the Florida Pastor has decided that God has spoken to him and that he will not burn any Holy Books now or ever. Hallelujah! He has seen the light. One must be grateful for little steps of progress when they come. Amen! Now if the political leaders of Palin, Boehner and Gingrich can see the light, maybe this will be a memorable 9/11 where something good comes out of it.

Market comments for Sept. 10th and comments about both 9/11 anniversary and Emergency Preparedness.

A friend of mine this morning provides me with an excerpt from the WSJ showing something relevant about the Initial Jobless Claims numbers released yesterday. Here's his note to me:

9.9.10/WSJ's MarketWatch: "Weekly jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000; Labor Day holiday may have distorted data"

Source: www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-decline-by-27000-to-451000-2010-09-09-84800

Excerpt: One potentially big caveat about the latest data is distortion caused by the Labor Day holiday. Two large states, California and Virginia, supplied estimates instead of actual data, while the federal government estimated the claims of seven other states.
"Given the weakness in the labor market, we welcome any sign of improvement in the pace of layoffs, but this figure should be taken with a grain of salt," economist Omair Sharif wrote in a report.
A more accurate gauge of employment trends is the four-week average of initial claims, which is less volatile than the weekly number. The four-week average fell a more modest 9,250 to 477,750.
"This is a level consistent with a stagnant labor market and very subdued private sector job creation," economist Neil Dutta of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said in an email.

Thanks Dennis!

And I thought another piece of information was relevant to what I am experiencing about the stock market. This is an article from Seeking Alpha titled, "What MasterCard and Visa Show About Market Disconnects" by Karl Denninger. Here's one excerpt from his article:

Simply put, either the market is "wrong" (and both of these stocks are screaming buys) or the market is right and the economy is literally falling apart.

If the latter, then all this "levitation" and "great time to buy" nonsense in the broader market is about to undergo a "reality adjustment" that just might reach 40% down - from here.

Pick a view, then place your bets.

The only economic data to be released today at 7:00am PST is the Wholesale Inventories number. This is a release of July data, hence backward looking. Expectations are for the number to come in at +0.4%, nut I don't see much of a reaction from this data. The big news will be more on what the Pastor from Florida plans to do tomorrow, go to visit NY and speak to the Imam, or stay home out of anger and do something stupid out of anger on the anniversary of 9/11. European markets are down currently while Dow Futures are up modestly +25 points.

The charts below show the Dow and S&P 500 for a 2 month period. You will notice that there is a light yellow line on both and they are the 200 day Moving Average. Both Indexes have remained below this line the past 2 months, with only brief moves above it. However, the S&P has gained closer than it was to the 200 day MA when I posted the same charts a few weeks ago. I do not believe we will go above this Resistance level and stay there so we are now at the top of the range. It is a good time to buy Short indexes again if you don't own some. I use ETF's as you know and while I haven't sold any, there has been a number of opportunities these past few months to make some nice gains on short term picks. Have a nice weekend.


On a side note, there was a massive gas explosion in the South San Francisco community of San Bruno last night about 6:00pm. I'm sure you have seen it on the news. Many victims are severely burned and many homes were destroyed. This should be a reminder to prepare yourself and your family for an emergency. In California, we have programs called Get Ready which are 2 hours in duration but will provide you with an awareness of what to do in an Emergency. More advanced programs such as CERT (Community Emergency Response Training) gives people all the knowledge they will need to survive 7 days without help from local Fire and Police Dept. assistance in your community. Give your family a gift and look into your own local program before you face what the people in San Bruno, CA or other people in Tornado affected communities in the midwest face every year, or what the people in Colorado are facing with the fires there. Check with your local Fire Dept. for programs near you.

Change We Can Believe In?

I was watching a news clip yesterday and saw pictures of President Obama at an Asian Conference abroad. It had the heads of state of the Nations attending all dressed in local garb and then taking the obligatory photo. Included in the group was our President who was in local dress also and it reminded me of the phrase, "Change We Can Believe In". In that moment I asked myself was President Obama the change I was looking for. The answer is unequivocally, YES!

For the past 10 to 15 years, I have been embarrassed by our Presidents. Yes, first it was with Bill Clinton and his sexual escapades with the culmination of the Monica Lewinsky affair and subsequently his impeachment. Then it was 8 long years of President Bush. He was a terrible President, embarrassing not just me, but an entire nation. When he just sat there during the 9/11 attacks, reading with children in a classroom, staying seated even after being told we were being attacked. As President he not only did what he could to subvert the Constitution with his sidekick, VP Dick Cheney, and lied about WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) in Iraq, fudging stories, about yellow cake uranium in Niger, to scare us about yellow mushroom clouds in our future if we didn't authorize the attack on Iraq. But even a small matter embarrassed me, President Bush couldn't even pronounce the word "Nuclear". But yesterday, as I watched our President mingling with World leaders, I finally said to myself, YES, President Obama is the Change We Can Believe In. But because I have been so disappointed for so many years, I must add the words, So Far! I just hope we are not disappointed, as we have many times before. We are in year one of his Presidency, but so far so good.

You see, there are some things to be grateful for, this Thanksgiving. You may or may not like President Obama's politic, but I think you can agree that so far he has not embarrassed us as President. Thank you Mr. President, thank you so very much! Finally a President who is what he had promised us in many ways.

Bush and Cheney's pandering to the Saudi Royal family must stop now

That's right. These 2 Oil men are putting their personal needs ahead of our country's needs and it must stop. We need to elect a President who doesn't hold hands with the head of State whose citizens flew planes into our NY office buildings. This President authorized the Bin Laden family members, which were in the United States when 9/11 happened to be able to leave our country when all planes were grounded on 9/11. Saudi Arabia is the same country that has not cracked down on the clerics and schools that preach hatred against us.

Americans must wake up and demand we get off the addiction of foreign oil and the phony relationships we have with their leaders. The solution unfortunately doesn't exist with the candidates fro President in the Republican Party, with the exception of Ron Paul. But it does with any of the Democratic choices for President, but mostly with Barack Obama and John Edwards. We have got to get smarter as citizens, because when we are not involved nor paying attention to what the candidates say, the last election we got the President we deserved. Hopefully this time, Americans are awakening and will choose more wisely.

The Middle East: End of, what will be called, a relatively peaceful era.

When historians look back at the last 40 years, they will write that it was the peaceful times before chaos ensued. This chaos was prompted by the ineptness of the United States to forge diplomatic efforts in the search for peace. It will be said, that while there was turmoil in the intervening years, it was nothing compared to the chaos that took place afterwards. And historians will heap much of the blame on President Bush and his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice. It will be written that they abandoned the search for a 2 State solution for the Palestinians and Israel, following a Laissez-fare approach to foreign policy. The current inept government of Israel is also to blame. Neither searching for peace on their own as a priority, they showed their weakness with Hezbollah in Lebanon and they stayed in Lebanon too long. this has emboldened the warriors around them to pursue conflict. Israel and the United States wanted elections in the Palestinian territory and so they went forth and Hamas, the strong militant faction aligned with Hezbollah, gained ground. Hamas now flexes its muscle on Fattah and everyone loses, especially the innocent.

President Bush's legacy will be a continuum from his personal life. He is known for driving his Oil business into bankruptcy. Now as leader of the free world, he has bankrupt the country, bankrupt our good will around the world, bankrupt the Middle East peace process, started a war in Iraq which is bankrupting the people of Iraq who he said he wanted to give democracy to, bankrupt the support we had after 9/11, bankrupt our military to the point where it is beyond broken, bankrupt our border security so that we have 12-20 million illegal immigrants that we didn't have before he came into office and he has bankrupt any support for the Republican party for a long time.

I can't wait for what the future will bring - NOT!