My Big Fat Greek Vote at midnight tonight. UPDATE

That's right, tonight a drama plays out in Greece, where Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a vote of confidence vote by Parliament. That is the first of the hurdles he must pass. If he succeeds with the vote of confidence, then he must gain approval for tough austerity measures so that Greece will be bailed out by other European countries. It is going to be full of drama for sure. What else to expect from the passionate Greeks?! :)

While markets are up this morning, don't bet long here as there are a series of moves that must take place to kick the world debt crisis can down the road. But for now, we get the market bounce. I would advise paying attention not only to this drama playing out, but also the drama here at home with the debt ceiling negotiations taking place between the Democrats and the Republicans and lead by VP Biden. Oh, and watch for another pronouncement by the Fed on passing the Debt Ceiling limit as soon as possible and not to continue to play brinkmanship with it.

In the mean time, yesterday's market did end the 13day streak of the Put to Call ratio exceeding 1.00, as it closed with a 0.89 reading. Continue to watch the market for lower highs and lower lows with a zig zag pattern in effect.

UPDATE: 4:00pm PST
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a vote of confidence, bolstering his new government’s chances of pushing through austerity measures to secure further international financial aid for the country.
A total of 155 lawmakers supported the motion in the 300- seat parliament in Athens early this morning, with 143 voting against,

Market comments for June 16th

Another day and another market drop. The Dow closed down again yesterday as did our other Indexes. We start today with the Nikkei and European markets down again today because of the turmoil in Greece. Our Economic data was a little better this morning with Initial Jobless Claims dropping for the week of 6/11 to 414K. Expectations were for 425K, so this is a bit better and in the right direction.

Yesterday we closed with another consecutive day when the Put to Call ratio was =>1.00 for the 11th consecutive day. Yesterday's chart shows the history of this indicator and let's face it, people don't really feel that well about the economy or the stock market and are selling, rather than looking to buy on the dips. As long as that mindset is present, it does portend good times ahead for the Bulls, but does for the ever louder Bears.

Today's chart below is of 3 months for the Dow. Of particular interest to me and should be to you was not only the fact that we are getting lower lows and lower highs on bounces, but that the down volume is much stronger than the up volume. Yesterday, the volume was stronger than the previous 2 days of the market rising slightly. And then before that, the volume was higher too. The trend is still down, but we haven't yet gotten to the real scary drops that are coming. Don't say you had no clue of this coming!

The culmination of this in the form of a sharp deep drop may come in the next few weeks. Much is riding on the negotiations of V.P. Biden and the Congressional leaders who are trying to get enough votes to pass the legislation to raise the debt ceiling. It looks now like somewhere between $1 and $2 Trillion dollars will be reduced over the next 10 years, in the level of debt we have. However, if neither political party did nothing, the debt would rise $6 Trillion with what Congress has already approved. So cutting $2 Trillion is a step in the right direction, but not enough. We will be revisiting this issue for the foreseeable future. In the mean time, everyone knows that and many don't have the confidence to buy stocks, so drip, drip, drip, the market goes.

Today is the 100th Birthday of my former employer of 18 years, IBM. Happy Birthday, IBM! It was a great company and still is.

And lastly, I want to thank all those who wrote me privately yesterday on my Cisco article. It looks like many outside AND inside agree with my comments.

Market outlook and commentary July 8th and beyond

Today's close marked the lowest closing price for the Dow and S%P 500 for 2 months and it is clear that the Indexes are going lower, as today's volume spiked for the previous day. The drop continues to hug the downtrend line of the 2 year chart of the Dow which I posted back on June 25th. The Dow closed down 160 points today to 8,163 while the S&P 500 closed at 881.The Put to Call ratio closed today at 1.01 after hitting an intraday spike to 1.14 at the first half hour of trading. This represents 3 of the past 6 days where this Index was over 1.00 and it has happened every other day. If it continues in this short pattern, tomorrow would see it back off to about 0.81-0.88. The market could still drop some but I believe this continual decline will happen slowly, rather than precipitously. The Dow is now at the 8100 level and the S&P 500 has gone as low as 878 today. Remember Art Cashin said on CNBC earlier that 877 is a key support level and if we go below it we are headed down to 840 or 800 on the S&P.

My ETF Ultra Short, symbol TZA has now risen to $25.63/share and continues to rise slowly. Those who bought this as low as $20/share are now up 25%. Tomorrow these ETF's will all have a reverse split which should not affect the total value you have invested but the share price will be significantly higher with a 10 to 1 reverse split on some and 20 to 1 on others.

Not much talk of Green Shoots lately and rather, the conversation has now moved to focus on not just earnings reports but more exactly future estimates by these companies. If they set the bars lower, it will confirm that recovery does not look like it will happen as thought just a few months ago. This can and should cast a more negative tone to the market for the next few months. Adding to the conversation and discussion is the fact that VP Biden and Laura Tyson have independently said they might consider a second stimulus. That too will add to the negative tone.. Again, I remind you to preserve capital so that a few months from now all the gains you made the past 3 months aren't all wiped out. If your portfolio has gained back 25-40%, as some have, it is not a sin to take the profit and sit on cash, waiting again to buy back near the lows in the 7,000's on the Dow or lower.