Market weekly summary and outlook for week of April 27, 2009
Market is now flat from where it was 2 weeks ago, on April 9th. The Dow closed yesterday at 8,076. Two weeks ago it closed at 8,083. The Nasdaq closed yesterday at 1,694. Two weeks ago it closed at 1,652. The S&P500 closed yesterday at 866. Two weeks ago it closed at 856. So while there looks like we have a trend up, in fact, the market has stayed in a very tight range for the 2 weeks.
The Put to call Index closed yesterday at 0.91 where 2 weeks ago it closed at 0.81. The VIX Index closed yesterday at 36.82 while 2 weeks ago it closed at 36.53. I would say that those are pretty close too.
Gold closed yesterday at $914/ounce and 2 weeks ago it closed at $890/ounce. This is a 2.7% gain. The Dow didn't gain anything, the S&P500 gained only 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 2.5%. Technology did the best in the markets, but not as good as did Gold. I have said to watch Gold prices to get a best sense of direction of the market. If Gold goes up, the markets will drop and if Gold drops the market should go up. I think there is a trend building for Gold's continued rise, going forward.
All this while we learned the earnings of a number of companies, the metrics used as a basis of the stress tests for the Banks. The results so far suggest Banks may need to raise another $1 Trillion of Capital. There was also the release of the memos on Torture by President Obama this week, which by the way was a good decision and a necessary step in moving ahead with this mess. And we passed the April 15th deadline for paying our taxes, the retirement accounts are flush with new cash all looking for a new home to invest in. It might be a part of the reason the market did not pull back much, as there were buyers at every moment the market did. Eventually we will have a breakout to the up or downside.
So I am still of the same mindset: We have been testing the upper bounds of this range now for several weeks and unable to get above it. Only time will give us the answer. I am staying with my ETF Ultra Short, TZA, as, until we know for sure the direction, it is still a better possible rate of return than other investments I see right now and it does hedge against a significant market drop. Preserving cash and capital is what should be your priority. Much uncertainty ahead. This is a marathon not a sprint. And of special note is that it has been observed and reported that Insiders have been selling into this rally. For more on this click here.
Right now I am pleased where my own portfolio is and I want to protect gains I have made, hence the ETF Ultra Short, TZA. You do what's right for you here. No one really knows what is going to happen but in another week we will learn how the market reacts to the actual results of the Stress Tests for the Banks. We will also be getting the results of the Unemployment rate for April on or about May 4th. So news will lead the markets and are unpredictable.
Don't forget to vote in my Mini Poll on the right if you haven't this month. Thanks for stopping by. Come again.
The Put to call Index closed yesterday at 0.91 where 2 weeks ago it closed at 0.81. The VIX Index closed yesterday at 36.82 while 2 weeks ago it closed at 36.53. I would say that those are pretty close too.
Gold closed yesterday at $914/ounce and 2 weeks ago it closed at $890/ounce. This is a 2.7% gain. The Dow didn't gain anything, the S&P500 gained only 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 2.5%. Technology did the best in the markets, but not as good as did Gold. I have said to watch Gold prices to get a best sense of direction of the market. If Gold goes up, the markets will drop and if Gold drops the market should go up. I think there is a trend building for Gold's continued rise, going forward.
All this while we learned the earnings of a number of companies, the metrics used as a basis of the stress tests for the Banks. The results so far suggest Banks may need to raise another $1 Trillion of Capital. There was also the release of the memos on Torture by President Obama this week, which by the way was a good decision and a necessary step in moving ahead with this mess. And we passed the April 15th deadline for paying our taxes, the retirement accounts are flush with new cash all looking for a new home to invest in. It might be a part of the reason the market did not pull back much, as there were buyers at every moment the market did. Eventually we will have a breakout to the up or downside.
So I am still of the same mindset: We have been testing the upper bounds of this range now for several weeks and unable to get above it. Only time will give us the answer. I am staying with my ETF Ultra Short, TZA, as, until we know for sure the direction, it is still a better possible rate of return than other investments I see right now and it does hedge against a significant market drop. Preserving cash and capital is what should be your priority. Much uncertainty ahead. This is a marathon not a sprint. And of special note is that it has been observed and reported that Insiders have been selling into this rally. For more on this click here.
Right now I am pleased where my own portfolio is and I want to protect gains I have made, hence the ETF Ultra Short, TZA. You do what's right for you here. No one really knows what is going to happen but in another week we will learn how the market reacts to the actual results of the Stress Tests for the Banks. We will also be getting the results of the Unemployment rate for April on or about May 4th. So news will lead the markets and are unpredictable.
Don't forget to vote in my Mini Poll on the right if you haven't this month. Thanks for stopping by. Come again.
Labels: breakout, Dow, ETF Ultra Shorts, Gold, Put To Call ratio, range, SP500, stock market outlook, Stress tests for banks, TZA, VIX Index, weekly summary
posted by Charles Amico at 7:07 AM
1 Comments:
It's interesting the pre-market numbers are UP substantially - +141 on the Dow (+1.7%) and +17.8 on the S&P +2.0%). Whatever is driving this market seems to be still driving it upward. I've got some TZA and Stop Losses in place, but am currently betting on this upswing to continue.
Mac
Post a Comment
<< Home