Sunday, November 27, 2011

Ideas for the 99% Occupy movement. Idea #1

Many have been asking what are the demands of the 99% movement protesters across the country and much has been made about the lack of a coherent message. I believe since most of us are in the 99% we must offer suggestions for what we all can do.

So here is my first suggestion. Most of us are concerned about the "Too Big to Fail" banks here in the US. There are about 6 of these institutions and here are the list of the ones I remember:

JP Morgan Chase
Bank of America
Wells Fargo

Anyone who is concerned these banks are too big can withdraw all their money and put them in local banks and Credit Unions. I like Community banks myself because they loan to local merchants. If the 99% withdrew their support of these banks they would be forced into shrinking and the size of their assets would shrink dramatically.

Idea #2 is in the works. If you have any ideas, feel free to leave a comment and maybe yours will be posted.

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Thursday, November 24, 2011

Where are the Student Protests today? Vol. 2

It was May 21st, 2005 when I wrote a Blog post titled, "Where are the Student Protests Today?". It has taken this long before some have finally demonstrated. This is the 99% Occupy Wall Street movement. Here is what I wrote back in 2005:

"As we approach June 4th , the anniversary of Tiananmen Square, and I reflect on our own history of student protests, it got me to wonder where are today's student protesters, as certainly there are many disturbing trends in America today, threatening the very fabric of our democracy as we search for bipartisanship in Congress and a more humble America in our rhetoric abroad and at home. But we still seem very arrogant as a nation with little understanding of the very cultures we are trying to change. I am not talking about Iraq here. I am talking about the "Divided" States of America, that's right, the good ole D.S.A., one nation, (partly) under God, very divisible, with liberty (until we can change those Senate Rules), and justice for (a few).

There was once a time of idealism, of standing up and being taken seriously by society, a conscience for all of us. This was the time of Student protests. Students protested the Vietnam war, the May 4th, 1970 Kent State shootings, Tiananmen Square and support for democracy in China, the outrage at the Chinese Government’s reaction to the protests and some recent protests of the Iraq war in selective cities.

As a nation, we have a lot to be angry about with our government. First there was the misleading 'intelligence' of the lead up to the Iraq invasion and then the letters of former White House General Counsel and current Attorney General, Roberto Gonzales, regarding new interpretations of what is and what is not torture. Then the pronouncements by our President that certain prisoners would not necessarily be treated in a manner consistent with the Geneva Convention. Add to this more recent assertion about additional abuse in Guantanamo and the shameless deceit to get recruits on High School campuses to enlist, and you wonder what it takes to get Student protesters engaged again. There have been some protests of the Iraq war but they fade away quickly. What captures the focus and attention of the bulk of our students today? Could it be survival, as the job market still looks bleak? Or is it just apathy? What do you think? I don’t think they care much about what the Senate is proposing in its Nuclear Option to end the filibuster and allow judicial nominations through who by the minority see as extreme in their views. Stay tuned."

I think this has merit today as well. Those brave students at UC Davis who were pepper sprayed for no reason other than they were protesting. Others on Wall Street protest as they have seen what they have gained over their lifetimes gone because of the greed on Wall Street and the Banks. Let's be thankful that the conscience of some is alive and full this Thanksgiving, even though their stomachs may be empty. Bless the 99% and be thankful for their voice and their courage. They are the best of what has made America great. Back in 2005, way before the Sub Prime problem, there was a jobs crisis (during the Bush years), but many have forgotten that. Many ill informed have blamed President Obama. Not me.

Along with your dinner today, which is a blessing in itself, maybe this will give you some extra food for thought.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Market comments for Nov. 23rd, 2011

I have not posted much recently on the stock market because nothing much has changed. I have posted the chart I posted back 1 month ago, on Oct 23rd, with an update based on today's current level of the S&P 500.

Now below is today's chart as of 11:15am PST. As you can see we have gone back below the upper red line and I see that both moves above that red line were nothing but Bear traps. Bad News in Europe and the failure of our Congressional Super Committee to agree on debt reduction, has the stock markets declining world wide.

I am still on the short side of this market and prefer to be that way going into this weekend. But I also believe we are a bit oversold and so a rally may occur after the weekend.

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Friday, November 18, 2011

Market comments for Nov. 18th, 2011

Today is Options Expiration for November so you should see high volume both at the opening of thew market today and also at the close. Troubles today in the Eurozone seem to be taking place behind close doors rather than in the press, so the Futures markets are up some as we go into the open. The economic data this week was somewhat better than expected with Initial Jobless Claims at 388K for the first time this low in a long time. Housing starts were also higher than expected. All good signs of a slightly better economy in the US with the emphasis on the word "slightly."

We have broken below that key support level of 1220 on the S&P 500 closing at 1216, but today we may go back above it.

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Thursday, November 17, 2011

Merkel and Sarkozy clash

There is a fight going on between Merkel of Germany and Sarkozy of France over whether to allow the ECB to, in essence, print more money like we have done here. Sarkozy would like it to get out of the Euro sovereign debt crisis and Merkel would not like that solution. Here's a picture below of the two of them. Which do you see winning the argument strictly based upon body language.

To read the article which goes with the above picture, click here.

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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

An update and analysis of the S&P 500 chart

Back on Oct. 23rd I posted this chart and commentary about the S&P 500 and where it might be headed. I think a review of that post seems appropriate as not much has changed since then. Let's see the chart and here's what I wrote then.

"I have drawn 2 red lines and 1 blue line. As you can see with the red line labeled 1, that we have broken above this level this past week. The next challenge for the Bulls is to cross over the red line 2 which crosses the axis at 1240. If it crosses above 1240, then the obvious next resistance level is at 1265. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1238. I can't guarantee that we won't go up to test the 1265 level, so you might want to entertain the possibility, depending on the news coming out of Europe, we could surge up this week and test it. If the news is mixed from Europe, we may stay between that narrow wedge between both red lines, between 1220 and 1240. But there will be a breakout soon in one direction or the other."

At this hour today, the S&P 500 is at 1246 and the chart has been updated below. Again, not much has changed. We are still below the 200 day Moving average and that line is slanting down.

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Saturday, November 12, 2011

Stock market: Where are we going?

I thought it would be worthwhile to look at this past week and see where we ended up. In my last Blog post, I cited the fact that the 200 day Moving averages appeared to be a significant resistance level for all major indexes. This week proved that point again as we ended the week with only the Dow above the 200 day MA. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 all are still below their 200 day Moving averages. Until we can climb above these indexes we are stuck from going higher.

The Put to call ratio closed the week at 0.93, not exactly a buy signal. The sovereign debt issues in Greece and in Italy took center stage in the early part of the week. Then the resignation of Greece's Prime Minister and the signal that Berlusconi of Italy may resign next. ALL THESE MOVES CLOUD THE FACT THAT THE DEBT ISSUES AND AUSTERITY MEASURES NEEDED TO RESOLVE THEM HAVE YET TO BE IMPLEMENTED. Stay tuned as the volatility will continue for the next 6 months. Even if austerity measures are passed by the governments, the people will be heard on these matters in ways that will frighten many. The people have only begun to make their objections known to the world and their leaders. In true democracies, leaders can be voted out or feel enough pressure to resign. This crisis is just in its infancy.

Don't forget that there are now only 11 days left before our Super Committee must agree to cuts in spending or automatic cuts in the military will be implemented. My guess is they won't do what's necessary and the US will be downgraded again by the S&P and Moody's rating agencies.

Here are the charts promised earlier:

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Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Market comments for Nov. 9th, 2011

Sorry I haven't posted recently, I was away back east to see my Mom and when I returned I had caught a very bad cold. But I'm back now and let's get at it.

I have watched the rise of the Dow recently as well as the other indexes over the 200 day Moving averages. But todays drop of between 200 and 300 points this morning, shows the strength of the 200 day MA line as a resistance level. The market actions have not made sense given the news in Europe and the fact that our own government may get downgraded as well for a second time. Greece has not really solved its problem but they did replace their leader. Italy may replace its leader as well, but replacing the leader doesn't solve this crisis in either countries and more than it would here. The problems are similar and the pain will have an impact and it is human to avoid pain. So my guess is that these problems will unfold stubbornly over time. The only solution I can see is a breakup of the EU in some fashion. Either the countries of the south like Greece and Italy will not be part of the EU anymore and possibly Portugal, or the entire EU will eventually dissolve.

Below are the charts for the Dow, S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 with their 200 day Moving Average lines. Unless the market can stay above these levels we are headed lower. Needless to say, it may be true again that the last rally we had was a bear trap. More on that over the weekend.

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