Friday, October 31, 2008

Yesterday was the end of the latest Bear Market rally

As I look at the Futures markets this morning I see a lot of Indexes down. Yesterday the market closed up but not at the high for the day. So today we are to have a pullback. I hope you read my post yesterday and took advantage of the conditions to buy Index Shorts on the ETF exchange like DXD, which shorts the Dow and SDS, which shorts the S&P500. If you did you will make some money the next few days.

There are only 2 business days before the election and Republicans are trying to scare everyone, even at this late hour, about voting for Barack Obama. One on CNBC this morning, former Republican Gov. Sununu of New Hampshire and advisor to Bush 1, said he believe that "Obama wants to nail Wall St. to the wall when he gets elected". I'm sorry Governor, it was Wall St. that nailed itself to the wall, even providing the nails in the form of a rescue/bailout package the Bush Administration asked for. So Mr. Sununu, go cry in your own soup, as you won't get any sympathy here. None of you are concerned about other individuals except those who have had the good life on the backs of the Middle Class and the poor. Shame on you!

UPDATE: Well I loved bein wrong today with my prediction, as the market did pull out another gain. We are close to the top of the recent initial drop around 9350 on the Dow. We closed at 9,325. So I can't really tell you what tomorrow will bring but I can tell you that it is possible that the wealthy Hedge Fund leaders and the Investment Bank community may be trying to drive the price up just before the election and if Obama wins, then make it dive and scare the hell out of everyone. I heard as much not phrased that way but John Sununu this morning was scaring everyone that a vote for Obama meant a bad thing for the markets. In fact on Floor commentator said that it would be disastrous for the Stock market if Barack wins. Same old fear tactics but I will take my chances on the American people rather than Wall Street on this. It was Wall Street's excess that caused this dilemma we all are facing and they just hate giving up power to WeThePeople!

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Markets point up but don't be fooled!

GDP for the 3rd Quarter was announced this morning and not surprisingly it was down -0.3%.This was not as bad as some had predicted with many expecting -0.6%. However, there were 2 good months with Sept. being the bad month. Markets appear to be set to open higher, but that doesn't really make sense does it. So this is a continuation of a Bear market rally. The Fed is lowering Interest rates but it doesn't and won't have any effect because no one is lending credit. So it's like the Butcher shop that advertised hamburger for $0.99/lb and when you ask for it the butcher says we don't have any. :)

Those invested in the stock market right now would be wise to take any profits they have in some stocks as one can predict without much effort these markets will pull back again soon and maybe deeper than before. My advice for those in cash is to use some cash to buy Ultra Short Funds of Indexes like the Dow or S&P500, as they are very cheap right now.

Things are not looking better in the economy even with all the actions of the government to mitigate the financial crisis. Therefore a stock market, which is rising is counter to the real conditions present. save yourself some pain and heed my advice. When might this pullback happen? My guess is just after the election. This rise may be to help give the Republicans a chance to win or keep some seats and so some Hedge Funds and investment bankers are pumping up the Indexes.

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Campaign Financing: Did Obama buy this election?

Much to do today on CNBC's Morning Joe Show stating that Obama has "bought the election", and suggesting, after the election, something should be done about Campaign Finance Reform. They say Obama has a 7 to 1 advantage in TV advertising compared to McCain, who opted for Federal Funding. Obama, who first said he would join McCain and use Public Financing, changed his mind and opted out. He mounted a very effective Internet campaign and raised most of his money by small contributions.

I believe Obama won the hearts and minds of the American people first and that caused people like me to send a contribution to him, where he won our wallets too. That's not buying an election. That is gaining the support of the American people versus Corporate Lobbyists and Special Interest groups. If an election were to be bought, I would rather it be bought by the American people. It seems to me that Republicans haven't figured out how to capture internet contributions yet, so they are calling foul. It just won't work for the Republicans this time.

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Sunday, October 26, 2008

Want to really have a positive impact on your Country? Deposit cash into your bank and buy stock Nov. 5th, Unity Day!

Many are hoping for change in this election. Obama represents that change for the majority of Americans. It has been a campaign based on a message of Hope. The youth vote is solidly behind Obama and are turning out in historical proportions to vote this year. Whether they actually do vote is still in question. But we will have the answer in just 9 short days. You are sitting there now, reading this and hoping that no matter who wins, the country is in trouble and things don't look good and they look like things are going to get mush worse. So the question is, what can you do as a citizen to help your new duly elected government have some breathing room to put together strategies for turning this country around?

There are several things you can do on Nov. 5th. First, and probably the most important, you can return money you have withdrawn from your bank and put under your mattress, back as a deposit in your Bank. Bank accounts are insured now up to $250,000. When you took cash out of your bank, you were afraid it wasn't going to be there when you needed it. Much has changed since that moment, not in a bad way, but in a positive way to ease credit crisis and unclog the financial system.

But you can now help on Nov. 5th by returning some cash to your Bank. Banks use the money to be able to lend to those who are trying to grow their business, and help those needing some short-term assistance with credit. Local Community Banks are even better places to deposit your money, as they make loans and free up credit in your local community. Larger Banks like Regional or National Banks, can lend your money all over the country and the world. So, when you deposit your cash in a local community bank, you are helping local restaurants, auto dealers, small businesses and your neighbors. If we could start a National effort to show confidence and trust in our financial institutions, by making these deposits on Nov. 5th., it would send a signal to the country, it's a new day!

Another, more visible, thing you can do on Nov. 5th, is to buy stock in the stock market. If the stock market could really rally on record volume Nov. 5th, it might help give everyone more confidence in the new Administration. I'm not asking you to jump in with all your cash, but, to be willing to invest in some good companies for the long haul that happen to be very cheap right now. If the stock market turns up, many will be affected positively and it will show the new President elect we are behind him as a country. Think about this seriously as most of the time our fellow citizens don't really feel like they make a difference. Here's your chance to be a part of something larger than yourself. The alternative is continued crisis, stress, short tempers and fear the dominant emotion. I think it's a no brainer and that's why I am proposing it.

I promise you I will take both of these actions with or without you but there is power in greater numbers. I will make a deposit of cash in my local bank account and I will buy stock all on Nov. 5th, Unity Day! If you believe in the spirit of this message have people visit here and read this for themselves at

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Saturday, October 25, 2008

A new and unique reaction to the Financial crisis of 2008: Class Warfare.

Past election issues, say from 1980-2004, have often been based upon ideological differences. The election of 2004 was based upon Security and who was going to make the Country safer, Bush or Kerry. In 2000, it was about proposed reforms of Social Security and Medicare and whether there was going to be a "lock box" for Social Security as Gore proposed or whether it was better to allow individuals invest their own retirement in the stock market, as Bush supported. (It's a good thing that idea never made it!) The other issue was, who was going to restore integrity and honor to the Presidency, after the Lewinsky matter and the impeachment of the President Clinton for lying turned the Country upside down and divided us into Red and Blue States. Another issue was weather we were going to use the U.S. Military fro "Nation Building". The Clinton Administration did send troops to the Balkans and this was supported by Gore. Bush wanted no Nation Building (in contrast to his desires the last 6 years in Iraq!). Gays in the Military were an issue and the Clinton Don't ask, Don't Tell policy was the policy of the Clinton Administration. Again, ideological issues around morality.

In the 1992 election between George Bush Sr. and a newcomer, Bill Clinton, Bush 1 had a very high approval rating of 89% after the first Gulf War. But that approval rating started dropping, as a mild recession encouraged Democrats there was a chance to win the election and take it away from Bush. Bush emphasized Clinton's lack of Military experience and ensured rumors of Clinton's infidelity took hold in the media. This campaign was as much about Clinton's character as anything else.

The 1988 election between Bush Sr and Dukakis had Bush casting Dukakis as a "proud liberal" that didn't have any Military experience, hence the famous photo of Dukakis in a tank with a helmut on and looking foolish according to the Bush attacks. There were a number of ideological differences between the 2 candidates. Dukakis tried to tie Bush to the scandals of the Reagan Administration, such as Iran Contra. During one of the Presidential debates Dukakis was asked by the Moderator if he supported the Death Penalty and gave Dukakis the situation for him to have as a context, which was that he was to pretend his wife was raped and murdered. Dukakis's answer discussed the statistical ineffectiveness of capital punishment. Rumors were spread that Dukakis's wife burned a Flag in protest of the Vietnam war.

In all of these examples the push for ideological differences is evident. For the first time in my memory, the fundamental difference in this election, is that it is about Class Warfare. There are no more Red States versus Blue States, Liberal versus Conservative. As a result of this unprecedented financial crisis, it's all about the Wealthy versus the Middle Class. Europe's elections have had this debate many times, but this is the first time in this country. Unions in France now have the power as they do in other European countries and in countries in South America as well. It is about empowering the Middle and Lower Class at the expense of the Wealthiest who have enjoyed an unprecedented run of about 30-50 years. Those who are wealthy are are split about this issue. Some believe the wealthiest are reaping the excesses of their failures to ensure all boats should have risen. They are willing to pay more in taxes and think it is fair and often wondered why the Republican Party under Bush 2 was pushing for so many tax breaks they really didn't need. It is a fact, that the gap between CEO's pay and average workers has increased many times fold over the past 20 years. This excess is giving rise to the highest voter participation rate in history. It has mobilized the youth of the country. With an election victory comes a more empowered electorate, just as the Founding Fathers had hoped would happen.

It has been a consequence of the actions and decisions of Presidents like Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 and all their supporters, including Corporate leaders who took abusive Salaries, Bonuses and company Stock Options. Those leaders got their Boards stacked with supporters who would approve these excesses and there was a quid pro quo for those serving on multiple Boards. You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. It is only those Corporations that truly have independent Board members that have a chance to limit excesses.

Even Healthcare companies, who have gone from Non Profit to For Profit Corporations are guilty of these excesses and are responsible for contributing to the high cost of healthcare. Greed drove these leaders to excesses. It might be a way to help reduce healthcare costs if we can get a handle on these excesses, and possibly return them from For Profit to Non Profit once again.

Lou Dobbs made his fame over the issues about jobs being outsourced abroad, illegal immigration ruining Middle Class jobs. War and Peace are still issues in this election as they have been since Vietnam. But because Iraq wants us to leave with in an agreed upon timetable, it is less of an issue than it could have been this time.

The focus the next 4-8 years will be about restoring a Middle Class in America, reigning in excessive CEO compensation, a better safety net for the less fortunate, a focus on real improvement in the education of our youth, and a world that works together because it has to in order to survive. Collaboration and cooperation will be the tools used. Everyone will be asked to sacrifice something for the betterment of all. After this election, the times they are a changing!!! It's now up to you to vote and start this chain reaction for the better! Turn away from the failed policies of the past. Vote for real change this time. Vote your interests not your favorite personality. Vote with courage of the unknown, not the fear that binds us to the past.

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Who should be part of an Obama Administration and who should not?

I have given this some thought and will recommend some individuals. First the criteria I used. They should have some gravitates and be well respected people by both Party's. Secondly, they should represent both parties. Thirdly, they can reach out across the isle to those in the opposing Party. Here are some suggestions:

• Richard Lugar, Senator from Indiana
• Sam Nunn, former Senator from Georgia
• Lee Hamilton, former Rep. from Indiana
• Robert Rubin, former Treasury Secretary
• Richard Clarke, Ex-White House anti-terror adviser
• Senator Jim Webb, Virginia
• Paul Vocker, former Federal Reserve Chairman
• Madeline Albright, former Sec. of State
• Mitt Romney, former Gov. of MA
• Claire McCaskill, Senator from Missouri
• Bill Richardson, Gov. New Mexico
• David Axelrod, Obama's campaign manager
• Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gov. of CA
• Chris Matthews, Hardball CNBC
• Leon Panetta, former Rep. of CA and Chief of Staff in White House under Clinton
• Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC

People Obama should not have in his Administration

• William Cohen
• John Edwards
• Hillary Clinton
• Meg Whitman
• Carli Fiorini
• Joe Lieberman
• Scott McCleland
• John McCain

If you have some suggestions to add please leave a comment.

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Friday, October 24, 2008

Who's in charge during this financial crisis and what are they doing?

Headlines this morning read, "the President will not comment on daily market fluctuations." and another reads, "Treasury Sec. Paulson says he is "monitoring" markets. Another quote from the White House, "Markets are digesting information. It will take time to settle." Doesn't that just comfort you wonderfully, going into the weekend!

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Capitulation: In the stock market and the Bush Administration

Well 24 hours can sure make a difference. Futures are down on the Dow over 550 points as the Nikkei dropped 10% in overnight trading, or should I say dumping. Things are looking and feeling like a 9/11 in the markets. So this might be the final capitulation today and Monday, all as we approach the final 11 days before the election.

It will be difficult for anyone to be a buyer of stocks today or Monday, but the biggest shift may be that there will not be buyers of stock for a very long time. So what are stocks worth? No one will know for a while. This economic catastrophe brought to you by the Bush/Cheney Administration. You remember them. They brought you such old favorites as the WMD concerns and invasion of Iraq, the bungled aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the trashing of the Constitution and now the economic collapse of the western world. This will be remembered as the Bush legacy. We have no leadership as we don't believe our President any more.

Do your best today not to let events manage you. Go for a walk today and don't look much at what is happening. This is not a day to sell even though that might be what you want to do. It's too late for all practical purposes. I pray you all can get through this whole.

The simple answer is most likely not. Why? Because the Hedge Funds will be selling in the last 45 minutes of the market today, as they want to get this behind them. Watch the Dow drop sharply 10-20 points in every few seconds, if they are selling. This will set up Monday for a big selloff. We didn't get today the bounce up into the positive that Hedge Funds wanted. The Volume for the day is low compared to previous sessions, so unless there is a lot of dumping, today is not going to represent the market bottom. The Dow at Noon is down -175 to 8,510. We will know in an hour.

UPDATE #2 At 1:00pm PST Market close

Well we did not reach capitulation today and so must wait for another day. The Dow closed down
-317 to 8,374 with an acceleration in selling at the close. The volume was disappointing today, compared to yesterday and the day before. There was the initial drop of about 500 points at the open but the scare never materialized. Unfortunately means we wait for another day. Much can happen over a weekend so be sure to check back for Monday's outlook.

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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Testimony in the Oversight and Gov't Reform Committee

Testimony is being obtained today from former Fed. Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, and former Treasury Sec. John Snow. This Committee is headed by its Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman (D) of California, but the quote of this day was by Minority Chairman Rep. Tom Davis (R) when he said to SEC Chairman Christopher Cox,

"The failure (by the Congress) to regulate the Credit Default Swap Market basically resulted in legalizing gambling (in those markets)."

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Near the end of the market drop and the beginning of restored confidence

We are closer to the end of this market drop than we were a week ago. Back in the Fall of 2002 through to March of 2003 we hit the bottom of about 7,200-7,400 level on the Dow. That is the bottom and with each day and another notch on the Index marking the time, we keep getting closer to the end of this market crash. As the Dow approaches the 8,000 level it will be a time to start selectively buying stocks again. We can all help shorten this downturn by the actions we take collectively. That means not over reacting to news. The volatility we have recently seen as determined by the VIX Index, are a result of investors emotional swings of fear and greed to the extremes.

Many have asked me when do I believe that confidence will start to return to financial markets. My answer is very simple. It's November 5th, if Obama gets elected President. If McCain gets elected confidence won't return for a very long time, years is my best guess. There are 12 days left before the election so make sure you vote early and avoid the lines in States where voting early is allowed.

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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Markets confirm we are in for a further drop

The stock market today dropped to a low of 8616 on the Dow or off 412 points in morning trading. This while Congress has been getting an earful from Ratings firms such as Moody's and the S&P. Testifying for Moody's was a former Credit officer who said the system was corrupt and that the reason was that firms like Moody's saw their customers as the Investment community rather than the public, as many firms paid Moody's and other firms so it was a conflict of interest fro them to raise issues. One line of questioning from Chairman Henry Waxman of CA, was particularly enlightening. He asked, when sub Prime loans were made, did they know buyers would not be able to pay for the loans over the life of the loans? Those testifying said they knew that the Homeowners would not be able to pay for the loans. He asked again, then you are telling me that lenders knew this? Again he heard, yes. How do you explain that the ratings of those companies doing the lending were not affected? He was told that there was an assumption built into the model that showed appreciation every year on the value of the home and that, "THEY NEVER CONSIDERED YEARS WHERE PRICES MIGHT DROP OR EVEN STAY EVEN"

And so my friends, this economy has been built like a House of Cards and the wind has been blowing and will continue to blow, as many unwind from bad positions, driving prices lower and the cycle will continue, until faith is once again restored. How long will it take? It will take a new President who can lead and command respect by his actions and his deeds. That means at least until mid 2009 before we all have a sense even with Barack Obama winning the Presidency. I fear a McCain win will keep the spiral going on for much longer than with an Obama presidency.

Therefore, the Dow most certainly in my view will go as low as 7,200-7,400 range and the Nasdaq the same percentage wise.


The Dow did drop 700 points near the close but managed to close losing 512 points to 8,519 which was above Dow 8,500. The volume increased in the last 20 minutes and today's volume was significantly higher than Monday or Tuesday's volume.

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

10/21/08 Mid week update on Dow and Nasdaq.

Another wild day in the stock market, this time with a 237 drop on the Dow. The Dow keeps struggling with the 9,000 level, as it closed today at 9,003.

If you are thinking the markets will hold here, you are doing wishful thinking. Here's some useful info. The Volume on the Nasdaq today and yesterday was about 2 Billion shares. This is considerably lower than it has been in the past several weeks. Volume during the volatile selloff a week or two ago was 3-4 Billion shares traded. So when the stocks go up you shouldn't believe the move up and when the stocks go down, watch volume in the last few minutes. The Volume spiked up near the close today and the selloff was strong. As the volume increased the Index declined rapidly. To me this data shows there is more of an inclination to sell off rather than go up.

I am still predicting that the Dow will go down to the 7,200-7,400 level. That would be about an 18% further decline. So be mindful and remember cash is King. On a more positive note, when we reach the 7,200-7,400 level we will not go lower. The markets from that point will start to go up. The rise up will not be sharp but rather slow. Most will be happy to get back to this 9,000 level. That means selling some stocks are still wise at this point, as you will be able to buy them back still lower.

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Sunday, October 19, 2008

McCain supported bailout and now calls Obama on "socialistic" policies? Give me a break!

Headline reads: McCain, Palin hint that Obama's policies are 'socialist'. According to a CNN report, "Sen. John McCain stepped up his rhetoric against his Democratic rival on taxes in his weekly radio address Saturday, comparing his plan to "socialist" programs.

Sen. John McCain held a rally Saturday in Cabarrus County, North Carolina. The remarks were part of a theme McCain has used since the final presidential debate, but his most recent comments were the first time he used the word to describe Sen. Barack Obama."

But isn't a vote for the bailout/rescue plan approved by John McCain "socialism". Be consistent Senator McCain. You can't have it both ways. Your Republican Party's mantra of "deregulate banking and Insurance" got us into this mess in the first place. It's not socialism to rescue the financial system from excesses, it's called saving the country. Remember "Country first!"

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Saturday, October 18, 2008

What was the first warning shot fired in the financial crisis?

The first warning shot in the financial crisis of 2008 happened actually in the late 1990's and while there was an initial reaction to the event, little if anything really changed on Wall Street. What was that precipitous event? It was the failure of the Hedge Fund, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) which lead to a massive bailout by other major banks and investment houses.

LTCM was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. Board of directors members included Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. The company had developed complex mathematical models it used to make investment decisions. Initially enormously successful with annualized returns of over 40% in its first years, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months and became a prominent example of the risk potential in the hedge fund industry. The fund folded in early 2000.

But do you think Congress or Wall Street learned anything back then? Nope! That was when Congress was controlled by the Republican Party and occurred during the post Lewinsky investigation, by then rabid Special Prosecutor Ken Starr. So to say the impeachment attempt by the Republican led Congress was a distraction to events surrounding Long Term Capital Management, is an understatement. It was a casualty from a divided country where Congress was consumed over a sexual matter, where a President who was embarrassed by it, lied about it to the Public. I don't blame just Republicans, I also blame the Democrats and the American people including me, who did not press our elected officials to investigate this matter more fully at the time and even years later.

The cost to our Nation is just starting to be understood. Think what might have been prevented in the current Financial crisis had Congress and Wall Street done a complete investigation as to what caused the financial meltdown of Long Term Capital Management. We have only recently come to understand the interconnection to many of the worlds problems.

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Stock market prediction: The week ahead

This is my 800th post since Blogging in 2005. I have had 31,000 visitors who have read 50,000 pages. Today I will comment on the stock market and what is in store next week, as I see it. The Dow has not completed a perfect "W" pattern this week and neither has the Nasdaq. This means it is doubtful we have really bottomed out. But the good news is we should know whether it has bottomed by the end of next week. What does this mean for investors? It means you still must be cautious but you may want to start buying by nibbling at some very beaten up stocks that are good value at current prices. If we get the week showing a move up from here then we have retested the bottom and are either going to stay around the 8,600 to 9,000 level for a while or we are going to go back up to 10,000 and be testing resistance of that high till years end. I do not see us going over 10,000 and staying there by years end.

If you look at the shape of a "W", and think of it on a chart tracking the price of a stock, if the "w" pattern is perfectly horizontal as it is in this line of type, that means the price will stay above the lowest legs of the "W" pattern. If the "W" pattern is slanted down, where the right leg of the "W" is lower than the first leg, the stock is going to accelerate down in price and the opposite, if the "W" pattern right leg is higher than the left leg. If this is confusing to you, it would be worth getting a book on Technical Analysis of Stock charting. Several quality books are out there, one by the author Martin Ping titled, "Technical Analysis Explained". It will help you understand what is happening in the stock market and your own stocks. Many ask why charting works? It is because the over 40% of all analysts use it and do make investment decisions using it, and that creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Now my own view is that we have NOT bottomed and I still believe it is likely we will go somewhere around 7,200-7,400 range because the decades of data shows the long trend line would cross at that level. I have also said we can get the same result by just staying at the current levels in the Nasdaq and Dow and achieve the same trend line by waiting for it to reach this level. But again, we will know a lot more and be able to predict even better after next week. Stay tuned and check here as I will post when news warrants regarding the market. If you get scared because the market in a given day is too volatile, check back here. In the mean time, have a nice weekend!

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Friday, October 17, 2008

Why aren't we buying Oil for Petroleum Oil Reserves while Oil is cheap?

The Bush/Cheney duo is all about supporting their friends and their own Oil interests. Our government should be filling the deep caverns when it comes to the Petroleum Oil Reserves with Oil now in the $65 dollar per barrel price.. Instead they buy Oil at the peak, when the prices were $145/barrel. We should not be encouraging Oil producers in OPEC to cut production, we should be buying the surplus at these prices. Wake up America! Start Buying our Oil needs now!

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Thursday, October 16, 2008

The "Undecided": Can you believe it, at this stage of the Presidential campaigns?

What's wrong with these people? Are they paralyzed in all parts of their lives? How do they go shopping in the grocery store? Do they spend hours reading every products label and can see both the benefits and limitations of each product they grab and walk home without groceries? Do they wring their hands when there is a power outage as they can see there is a benefit to report the outage, but everyone is probably calling it in? Their mantra: I just don't have enough information yet!

It is hard to believe, but many Americans, about 10% from the latest polls, just can't make a decision. I expect that they also have buyers remorse when they finally are confronted with making a choice in the voting booth. Come to think of it, they probably don't vote, as they are afraid of making the wrong decision. There couldn't be more of a clear difference between any two candidates in recent history. I guess it takes all types in this world. How about we all promise to disregard questioning them and paying attention to their neurosis. The truth is they don't know what they believe in, nor are they connected to their deep values because they have never discovered them. How sad.

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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Post debate analysis

I guess both candidates did what they wanted to accomplish in this final debate. Barack handled the attacks from McCain with a certain calmness and respectfulness for McCain in spite of the attacks. I learned one thing tonight, I have no fear with Barack talking to world leaders in difficult times. I feel more confident tonight he listens well and can clearly articulate his differences with the other person while still staying engaged in the topic. No one should underestimate his ability after this debate tonight. He does have a gravitas and is the type of person who will inspire Americans in the difficult times ahead.

I am very happy this was the final debate and I am glad we are about to vote. I just wish it were tomorrow instead of a couple of weeks. Wait a minute, I forgot, I vote absentee and will vote tomorrow.

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Republicans want gov't "bailout/rescue." Hmmm isn't this Socialism?

I thought I would grab information about just what socialism is, as defined by Wikipedia. There are some interesting tidbits here, which are sure to peak your interest. For example, read this definition of Socialism:

"Socialism refers to a broad set of economic theories of social organization advocating state or collective ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods, and the creation of an egalitarian society

Socialists mainly share the belief that capitalism by nature concentrates power and wealth among a small segment of society that controls capital, and creates an unequal society. All socialists advocate the creation of an egalitarian society, in which wealth and power are distributed more evenly, although there is considerable disagreement among socialists over how, and to what extent this could be achieved.

Sound familiar? How about this below:

"Socialism is not a discrete philosophy of fixed doctrine and program; its branches advocate a degree of social interventionism and economic rationalization, sometimes opposing each other. Another dividing feature of the socialist movement is the split on how a socialist economy should be established between the reformists and the revolutionaries. Some socialists advocate complete nationalization of the means of production, distribution, and exchange; while others advocate state control of capital within the framework of a market economy. Social democrats propose selective nationalization of key national industries in mixed economies combined with tax-funded welfare programs; Libertarian socialism (which includes Socialist Anarchism and Libertarian Marxism) rejects state control and ownership of the economy altogether and advocates direct collective ownership of the means of production via co-operative workers' councils and workplace democracy."

Sound familiar?

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Anticipating the final Presidential Debate

There is only 2 1/2 hours before the final debate will be held and hosted by Bill Schieffer of CBS. In the commentary of the past few hours by the Main St. media, they are apparently looking for McCain to start a fight, using character associations over issues as the catalyst. If that's what happens by McCain, then we all lose. If it starts to go that way, we should all shut off our televisions or change the channel to watch a movie. They keep track of the number of viewers. It is expected that over 70 Million will view the debate. If the mud starts being thrown, just vote for the choice you have already made. Forget those undecided voters. They just crave attention anyway.

They say McCain is a maverick. Well, if you call picking an unknown, as your VP running mate a maverick, that certainly isn't the kind of maverick we need at this time. Just think of the risk we are taking if he chooses his Treasury Secretary the same way. Barack on the other hand has both Paul Vocker former Fed Chairman and Warren Buffet as advisors. In this case their association with Barack shows the measure of the man. Why else would such greats be advising Barack?

We need hope and trust again in our leaders. Obama is not really a fixture in Washington as he has served as a Senator only a relative few years as compared to McCain. And he has lived a more modest life and struggled as most of us have to make something of ourselves. I say we break with tradition and give Barack a real chance. We are all going to need to make some sacrifices. Who better to lead us in those sacrifices then someone who has struggled his whole life against many odds.

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Stock Market and political outlook for today for the 3rd debate

Stock Market Outlook today: Today the markets should pull back. How much is anyones guess. But there isn't any good news out there in reality. Expect about a 300 point drop today on the Dow and for it to go below the 9,000 level, but with Options Expiring this week for October on Friday, it could get very erratic, both to the upside and downside. It will feel like you are in a boat and riding the waves. I am expecting the moves in the market, over the next week or so, to make a double bottom and that means another test of the 8000 level. I have a sell order in for my TWM Short on the market at $140 if it should get there while I am away most of the day. I don't believe it will trade at that level but it is good to get an order in for the day, in the event that it does.

Those with exceptional skills can make money trading frequently on the swings but they must be watching the market continuously. I can't today, and that's a good thing. I need a break from these swings too.

Politics: We still will have 2 days left this week for Options to expire on Friday, and tonight the last debate will be held. From all expectations it sounds as though Senator McCain is going to focus on Obama's "character issues". I can hear the politics of the past going full force tonight from McCain, but I am hoping Obama will make short work of them and point out most Americans want them to talk about the economy and what they are going to do to get it back on track. It is the politic of deregulation that got us into this mess and that has been McCain's mantra most of his political career.

Americans don't need divisiveness now, they need someone who can heal this country and who can also gain respect from other world powers. As the son of William F. Buckley said yesterday, Barack, he believes, is that man. Buckley, a Republican and owner/writer of the National Review, tendered his resignation yesterday, as many Republicans were offended he switched to Obama, and they wanted him out of the National Review, as they felt they were betrayed. His father always allowed others to express their views openly as long as they were logical and had an explanation. He is probably turning in his grave over how the Republican Party lost its way and in the process destroyed the financial system in this country. He was one of the best type of Republicans, tolerant of others views, smart and articulate and wouldn't stoop to inflame crowds with racial slurs or innuendoes. He was like many of my fine Republican friends, who now lament over what has happened to their Party.

There was a scene in the Godfather, where Clamenza said, and I paraphrase, "every few years there has to be a cleaning of the bad blood between the Families and it was time now to do that." Same is true for the Republican Party.

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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Early market action: What it is telling me today.

As I watch the opening bell this morning and watched the quick run up on the Dow and the Nasdaq, I watched what was happening to the Ultra Short Russell 2000, symbol TWM. Well before the opening it was at $84/share and I have watched it steadily increase to where it is now after only 15 minutes the market opened. It currently sits at $93.55/share so it clearly is gaining traction. Simultaneously the Nasdaq was up over 40 points and has since backed off to being up only 18 and the Dow, which was up about 400 points has backed off and now sits up 250 points.

What does this mean? There is skepticism about the move of the market in the past 2 days and that may mean many are selling into the rally. I don't trust it either! Preserve Capital!

UPDATE: Market closed down, as predicted, with the Nasdaq down 65 points to 1779 and the Dow ended down 77 to 9311. TWM gained 5 points to $99.95/share. And Volume was down as well. It was lower than all of days daily volume during last weeks decline,

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Monday, October 13, 2008

What was the trade in the stock market today?

Today's markets showed irrational exuberance. The Dow was up over 936 points. and the Nasdaq was up 195 points. You can't believe all is well with the world in one day, can you? Near the close I bought an ETF Russell Ultra Fund Short. The symbol is TWM. It lost over 26 points or 22% just today. If you think we are at the bottom and have rallied off of it then you should not pay attention to what I am about to say. If you think as I do, we had a Bear Market Rally today and it is just a matter of time before the Doe and other market indexes retest their recent lows.

I like to sell or buy shorts when the market has a day like today. So I bought the ETF for the Russell 2000, symbol TWM. If the market retests the recent lows, I should make about 20% return.

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Today is a Bear Market Rally. Sell into strength to preserve cash

That's correct, this is a relief rally because of the coordinated moves in the EU. If your stocks have scratched back a sizable gain, you should consider selling some of the stock today as the rally continues and more tomorrow if the market continues its rise. Because, the markets will drop back to the recent lows in days to come and will set new lows. It has happened many times in the past and if you observe how the Nasdaq dropped from the Dot.Com bust in 2000 to 2001, there were many times where everyone thought the bottom was in only to see the markets drop again to new lows. Let history be your guide.

Check back as I will continue to write about markets here. When we are at the bottom I will declare it. For now I am trying to help you save your funds and preserve capital until things stabilize. We are not stable yet and have quite a long way to go.

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Come out come out where ever you are! Cheney shows up

Vice President Cheney resurfaced today when the Prime Minister of Italy visited the White House. I got a glimpse of him as President Bush greeted Silvio Berlusconi. So Cheney has come out of hiding, as he hadn't been seen in public since Oct. 3rd.

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Saturday, October 11, 2008

Preparation for Uncertainty: What the future holds!

As you read this post, I hope it will change how you see the world and how you act going forward, as it relates to your financial situation and, therefore, your plans for your future. I have analyzed the stock market drop from the high of 14,280 to the close of markets yesterday Oct. 10th. I also looked at the historical data for the Dow from 1984 with its spectacular rise starting in 1995, dropping in 2000 after the bust, rising again from that bottom after Sept. 11, 2001 and rising to its high ending in the Fall of 2007. Here's what the future looks like to me. It isn't cast in stone, but there are enough unique conditions that it is going to have a dramatic affect on how we live, and how we accumulate wealth to secure our future.

The first conclusion I have made is that the market trend in the Dow from 1988 to 1995 will be the dominant trend in markets, after bottoming soon at a Dow of about 7,200 to 7,400. What this means to you is that the Dow will NOT return to its high of 14,000 till the year 2030. That's right 2030! This is unfathomable for most Americans to even consider. Can things change to arrive there sooner? Yes, but built into this view is a continually rising Dow. We know that there will be setbacks during that period. But there will be an end to the excesses that got us into this trouble in the first place, and a generation who won't forget what has happened in their lifetimes. Sorry for that gloomy outlook, but read on, as there is hope.

The rate of growth in the Dow between 1985 and 1995 was about double, when it went from about 2,000 to 4,000 points. From 1996 to 2000, the Dow's rate of growth was from 4,000 to 12,000, or a tripling. In effect, from the year 2000 to now, the Dow rose to 14,000, but since has dropped to 8,451 at the close yesterday. That is a drop from the high of 5,500 points, or almost 40%, with still more losses ahead. So the time for triple growth in a short timeframe is almost out of the question.

In summary here's what has occurred with the Dow:
1985-1995 10 years = Doubling of the Dow
1996-2000 5 years = Tripling of the Dow in half the time of the previous 10 years

The slope of the trend line is a predictor of the future trend, until events change. Using this simple fact, if one were to follow the trend of the Dow from 1988, the intersection of that trend line would be around 7,400 on the Dow. That is why I have repeatedly said the Dow will go down to 7,400. We still have about 1,000 points to go if we bottom now, OR, if we just stay at 8,500 level for the period of about a year or so, the trend line will cross at 8,500 and then the Dow will start to rise again. But it will be at a very slow rate compared to what we have grown accustomed to in the past 15 years. This will change our lives and our notions of reality in financial terms. This will affect our savings habits and our spending habits as a country. That is why most experts say we are headed for a deep recession, and some 60%, believe a Depression. Whether we go into a Depression will depend on whether we have learned the lessons we needed to, not at a country leadership level, but rather at the individual person and family level.

2008-2018 Between 7-10 years there will be only a 20% gain in the Dow.

Here are some lessons to learn:
Lesson #1. Live within our means.
Only make purchases when we have the money/cash to pay for them. This means not using Credit Cards unless we can pay the total balance off within 30 days. This means ensuring that we have enough cash set aside to manage any unexpected expenses or for emergencies.

Lesson #2. Save 10% of our income.
Live in a house/apartment where our payments and our home expenses allow us to put aside 10% of our income weekly. This will be used to help save for college for our children, large purchases like a new car or investing in renewable energy sources for our homes. If we can't do this then we are living beyond our means, and may need to increase our income, for example, by taking on another job. Don't expect any money saved will yield high returns any longer, as they won't. See if it is possible to work some days from home. Look at other job possibilities as well.

The days of buying on credit are over. Yes, they will still send us credit cards, but we will need to realize we have been addicted to credit and need to break the "habit".

Investing for the long term will take on new meaning. Buy and hold strategies are gone for now for a long time. Trading will be the name of the game. Investing in Large Caps will not help us realize our financial goals. Small caps are where we have a chance to make some real gains. Large Caps will be merging with other Large Cap companies. Mergers and Acquisitions will be the significant activity over the next 5 years. Layoffs will increase and Small Businesses will be in a state of flux, but creative entrepreneurs will lead us out of this mess. Small is the future and the change to local communities will be where the action is. Video Conferencing will be the preferred method of contact instead of travel. Airlines will be consolidated with some major names going bankrupt, and new names emerging from around the world and serving our air travel. Innovation in Green alternative energy sources will be the space where we emerge as a country and regain our lead in the world.

The gap between the rich and the poor has widened so much over the past 25 years that many on the lowest rungs of society have been forgotten about, and the Middle Class has been nearly decimated. According to a International Tribune article, data from 2007, the top 300,000 Americans collectively enjoyed almost as much income as the bottom 150 million Americans. Per person, the top group received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.

We will have to relearn to be more compassionate for those who have less, who need a helping hand. Families will, out of necessity, come closer together. It will be both scary and exciting times, but we will emerge stronger and hopefully less arrogant as a people. This time we live in has some great potential for the significant advancement and evolution of human consciousness across the planet.

As Barack has written, do we dare have "The Audacity of Hope"! Let's pray we do. I do!

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Friday, October 10, 2008

Where's VP Dick Cheney?

Has anyone seen or heard from Dick Cheney recently? It seems his absence is most convenient during this financial crisis. Any ideas where he is? I was thinking in that Underground Bunker.

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Are we at the bottom in the stock market?

According to my analysis, no, but we are close. Where is the bottom? After doing my own analysis it appears to me that the bottom is between 7200 and 7400 on the Dow. As of this writing, the Dow is at 8011 or down over 565 points as I type this. Looking at the chart below we have tested the 7200 level a number of years ago in 1999, 2002 and 2003. In the attached chart you can see from the lines I have drawn that I believe that will hold as well. So there is still some pain left. That is an 115 drop from here. To recover back up to 8100 the Dow would then have to gain 900 points or 900/7200 or 12.5%. That won't be difficult to do. So it seems the best strategy now, if you haven't sold already, is to hold on and let this play out. It's too late to sell, unless you don't have any cash at all.

We need to once again believe that as Americans we can and will pull together. However this time it will take a new President, as we have lost all faith in President Bush. But I do have one question to the Bush Administration. Where's Vice President Dick Cheney through all of this financial turmoil? Is he in the underground bunker working at contingency plans to institute Marshall Law? He doesn't even feel a need to support Bush by being at least next to him during these addresses to the public as he tries to calm fears. Shame on you Mr. Vice President.

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Thursday, October 09, 2008

Markets drop. What to do now?

The best answer I can give you is that it isn't over. How will you know when it is over? You will know it is over when you are tempted to buy stocks again. When will that happen? Not for a while. Will the market bounce back up over 10,000 on the Dow? No, not for a long time. It takes time to rebuild trust. We are lucky everyone still trusts a dollar is worth something around a dollar. It could be a lot worse. The rest of the world does believe in us and has hope we will be able to turn things around. They are betting on it.

You will need to watch where your money is going on a regular basis and ensure you will have enough for at least 1 year. You might have to get a second job. This is the time to be looking for one before there are more unemployed. Those that have cash will be OK but you need to take responsibility to help those without assistance. Charities will need more, not less as the numbers needing help will increase.

For those who have cash, start buying reputable companies with proven track records when the Dow breaks to 7800 or lower. That is the time to start to take some risks. Where should you put some of that money to risk? I would invest in Green companies which are either solar, wind or other alternative energy companies as those are the places Obama has as he #1 priority according to his debate statements. It will take being centered and those willing to tolerate risk. If you can't sleep at night, then you shouldn't be investing. Good luck.

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Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Who won this 2nd Presidential debate?

The quick answer is Barack Obama. But my data point isn't my own view. I called my Mom, who likes John McCain and is biased and prejudice against people of color. I asked her who won the debate. Mom said that Obama seemed to use the time. I said what do you mean by that? She answered he answered the questions very well. I then asked her, Who won the debate then? She said Obama if she were voting today.

Mom would never have said that unless Barack Obama had really won. I must admit I was very surprised that she actually said that, but she did. It made me very proud of my 90 year old Mom.

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Monday, October 06, 2008

Collective mindset (herd mentality) and the implications for the economy worldwide

I have been working as an Executive Coach for 35 years and for the past 22 years I have focused on the importance of our mindset in creating the results we want in our lives. For the first 10 years I focused on changing behaviors as a way to create a result, and while it worked short term, it didn't have staying power and was quite labor intensive. Then I learned the power of "mindset", or the power of ones mind.

Today we are facing a collective mindset which has a proclivity towards seeing doom and gloom in our future and is driving us towards that very future. In the 2004 election it was fear that drove our decisions because of the fear promoted by the Bush/Cheney Administration to scare us into voting for another 4 year term for them, as they were the only ones protecting us from another attack. As sheep, many voted their fear and we got another 4 years under their leadership.

We now face the fear of a financial institution collapse and subsequent economic meltdown. This has precipitated runs on banks to withdraw cash, major drops in the stock markets and credit availability nearly at zero probability of getting any.

The collective mindset of fear is at work. How will we collectively get out of this spiral mess and what can you do? And what got us into this mess in the first place? Greed got us here and it is the flip side of the coin of fear. In part that is the answer to get us out of this at an unconscious level. The place where to look for a reversal will be in the stock markets. As stock markets go down precipitously, there is a point where some decide there is a chance to really make some money and they jump in in the final stages of the drop in stock prices, often called "Capitulation". Our stock markets have gone down almost 20%. They are ripe to drop more but there will be a bottom where the first courageous ones jump in and take a risk and buy stock. If the drop is severe enough, there will be a rebound. As the rebound is reported in the media, it should get those who have moved from fear to greed to start buying with a vengeance. The same process happened in the markets after 9/11.

It takes a lot of self confidence and control of ones emotions, to manage to do this as an individual. It is easier to be caught in the actions of a crowd and to go along with the crowd. Most individuals don't believe they really make a difference if they take an action. But the truth is that every individual does make a difference. So the way out of this is NOT to panic, not to wonder what everyone else is doing and follow along. It is best to decide what is right for yourself, being mindful whether you are following a crowd or assessing the situation for yourself.

Here's an example to test yourself. Think back when you made your last purchase in the stock market. Did you make that purchase on a day when the stock you were purchasing was going up or going down? Think about 9/11 and ask yourself did you sell at the first chance you had when the markets were closed for a week or did you buy? Most people Buy when a stock is going up quickly and they sell when a stock is dropping quickly. A select few sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling. This was the case most recently with Warren Buffet, America's finest financial Guru, when he invested in Goldman Sachs and GE.

We have a chance to influence the future we want. Barack knows that when he says "the change we need comes from the bottom, not the top" or "you are the change you have been waiting for". How can you help immediately. First, decide that the Banking industry is now under control. If you have cash you have withdrawn from your banks, return it to the bank. If we all have faith and we believe our deposits are insured now up to $250,000 from the $100,000 limit in place before the Rescue Plan, then we can help the government help the banks start to lend money again by returning our cash. We can continue to frequent our local restaurants so they don't go out of business and we can plan for a wonderful Christmas. Remember it is the Consumer who controls 2/3rd's of the economy, while the other 1/3rd is controlled by Corporate buying.

Let's ensure that our collective mindset is focused on seeing the future we want, not the future we have inherited. You have the power, as do I. Let's use it collectively for the good of all.

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Sunday, October 05, 2008

How can Republican voters win while Republican candidates lose?

This is an appeal to Republican voters. Back in 2000, Democratic voters felt very angry after that election between Gore and Bush, especially with the Supreme Court involved in the decision. Since that election a long eight years has passed. The Bush Administration took care of their supporters after that election when it came to awarding government contracts and any other perks allowed under law. All new Administrations do that. How do they tell? They look at election results by the voters and try to help those States when needed.

I live in California and we have had some bad financial times with unemployment as high as 7.3% while Nationally the unemployment rate is 6.1%. But it is not as bad a some States like Michigan. California went for Kerry in 2000 and even though we have a Republican Gov, Arnold, the Terminator, we didn't get any help from the Bush Administration.

After the election, which it looks now like Barack Obama is going to win and may win in a landslide, Obama is going to start a new beginning for this Country. He has to as things are bad. But where he starts that beginning will be based upon what States voted for him and which didn't.

So here's my pitch, if it continues to look like Barack Obama is going to win, do yourself and your State a favor and vote for him, and while you're at it, encourage your friends and family as well. If it is a truly one sided mandate, as I believe he will win in a landslide due to the financial mess we are in, we have a good chance of ending several problems all at once. First, it could help change the state of race relations for the better in this country. Secondly, with the financial crisis upon us and expected to get much, much worse, it can help bring us together, as Americans without Party labels as attributes. We have a chance to finally unite the country, as Obama, I believe, will lead from the Center, not the Left. We don't need more wars which is where McCain feels most comfortable dealing with, not the economy as his answer is more deregulation, which is what caused the problem. When things get tough for you, as they surely will, wouldn't it be nice to get a helping hand in solving these problems for ALL Americans, not just a few at the top. Hope you do too.

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For McCain, has it been "Country First" or was it "CountryWide" First?

John McCain has been promoting his Presidential bid with the phrase "Country First!" The problem is he hasn't acted that way in his latest endeavor to rush back to Washington to get his Republicans in the House to vote for the Rescue plan. He said he was going to cancel his campaign until it passed. He didn't. They voted against the Rescue plan the first time and by McCain adding Presidential politics into the mix, the Senate added Pork to the $700 Billion package for such things as helping an Arrow manufacturer, helping import Rum from the Caribbean supplier and other pork projects to get Republican support. It worked. Another $100 Billion plus was added to the Bill, McCain voted for the additional Pork and then the House Republicans joined the Democrats and the Bill passed. That maneuver cost the taxpayers an additional $100 Billion from the original $700 Billion package to reach $800 Billion. So John McCain was hypocritical and more likely disingenuous.

He has supported deregulation across the board for the past 20 plus years he has been in the Senate. We all learned deregulation has caused the problem. So how can anyone argue McCain isn't 4 more years of the Bush presidency, as he has voted for Bush's policies 90% of the time. He has favored and pushed deregulation for the Banks causing the Sub Prime crisis as has his Economic Advisor former Senator Phil Gramm. You see it has never really been "Country First!" for McCain. It has been more like "CountryWide First!", the first financial institution to go belly up as the leaders in the Sub Prime lending fiasco.

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Saturday, October 04, 2008

They knew this Financial crisis was coming in 2004

This is a NY Times article and a must read as to how we got in this financial mess. Readers will be as surprised as I was. Here are a few excerpts and a link to the entire article:

"How could Mr. Cox (SEC Chairman) have been so wrong?

Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control. The agency’s failure to follow through on those decisions also explains why Washington regulators did not see what was coming.

On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.

They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary."

To read the entire article click here.

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Friday, October 03, 2008

The Fall of the 21st Century Roman Empire

First, I did support this Rescue Plan of our Banking and Credit system with the $700 Billion plan. However, with today’s Congressional passage of the Rescue Plan, the country has declared that the Free Enterprise system is not really free any longer. Both Parties approved this Rescue Plan. Now our banking system has been socialized and thank God this Bill passed.

I hate to think what might have happened if it had failed to be passed. But make no mistake, today our Financial System was declared dead and resurrected by our collective good. It may or may not work. But it clearly has set a precedent that times have changed, government Can help solve our problems and we need to consider how that might be used to reinvest in Renewable Energy technology as well as possible changes in our Healthcare system. "Yes We Can!", will be the new mantra. But, in the meantime, expect many to lose their jobs, in spite of the passage of this Bill. Credit may still be tight as Banks wait to receive funds from the Fed.

And on another note, there was nothing John McCain did when he returned to Washington and suspended his campaign, to get this passed. Any claim to the contrary should be dismissed as mere posturing. All of the requirements outlined by Barack Obama early on in this crisis were passed and the foundation of the Bill. It was not a good day in some respects for America, the second Roman Empire, but it had one bright spot, the Republicans joined the Democrats and passed this very required Bill.

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

Who is going to win in this VP debate? UPDATE

The voters. The more we know the less likely we will make a mistake and vote for the wrong team. Ask yourself which candidate truly represents your views on the economy and the state of affairs we find ourselves in and which team will solve these problems? Will it be the team that created the problem in the first place or the other? You decide.

UPDATE: Well it went on and there were no gaffs, and Gov. Palin did a good job recovering her image. Biden won the debate in substance, which was what most viewers want in a debate. He made no gaffs, answered questions in the assigned time and was respectful of Gov. Palin. This is the Joe Biden I liked in the Primary and why I had supported him for President.

The momentum is continuing for Barack Obama. John McCain's time is running out. And with 1/3 of the nation actually voting now with Absentee ballots this is not good for John McCain. Even if there is a movement back towards McCain, the fact that so many are voting now, with Barack leading in all polls, this is not good for Senator McCain.

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