Monday, August 31, 2009

Market outlook: The correction has started

News from Asia has started the long awaited correction. Headline news from China lead the drop, with The Shanghai Composite Index falling the most since June 2008 and entering a bear market, on concern a slowdown in lending growth may derail a recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

The benchmark index tumbled 6.7 percent to 2,667.75, capping its biggest monthly loss since October. The gauge has slumped 23 percent from its 15-month high on Aug. 4 and is the worst performer this month among 89 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally. Trading in Europe is down this morning before our market opens and the pre-market indicators all point to a lower opening.

This is the last day of August and September usually starts the most volatile 2 months of the year, capped by Options expiration for the third Friday in October.

I just returned form a short trip to Las Vegas for the weekend. It is very slow there. Not many tourists seemed to be visiting as I observed the lightest traffic since I have gone to Vegas now the past 10 years. The Casino's had many gaming tables closed because there were no players. In Bellagio's, for example, over half of the Craps Tables were closed on Friday. Normally crowded walkways were sparse and auto traffic was unbelievably light. I saw no construction going on to finish the City Center project, as well as a number of other buildings incomplete. I talked to one cab driver who said he had bought a house a few years ago for $260,000 and Citi Bank wanted him to take more money and so he took a total of $300,000. Well since the sub-prime MORTGAGE problem, his house is now worth only $42,000. He said he is going to sell the house for the $42,000 and move away to Peru as he is part Japanese and Peruvian. He claims he can live in Peru for only $20/day. He said the only thing Las Vegas leads the country in is Tattoo Parlors and Prostitutes.

Another cab driver talked about how Kirkorian will go bankrupt because he is charging almost $1,000/sq. ft. for his newly built apartments. He said everyone in Vegas sees him as a greedy person who deserves bankruptcy. And yet another cab driver was bitter as he complained many Conventions had cancelled coming to Vegas since President Obama had chastised business leaders for taking extravagant trips to Vegas while normal people were hurting. So it is clear to me it is going to be a long time before Las Vegas optimism returns to the population there and most likely the country as well. This Fall correction isn't going to help confidence much either.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Trivia: Ted Kennedy's mother, Rose

As a young child, Rose lived in the Ashmont section of Dorchester, Massachusetts, a few blocks from where I lived. She attended Girl's Latin School, the same school as my sister attended about 60 years later but graduated from Dorchester High School in 1906. The home on Ashmont later burned down, but a plaque at Welles Avenue and Harley Street says "Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy Square". The plaque was dedicated by her son, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, on Rose's 102nd birthday in 1992. I had moved out of that area in 1963, so I never saw the dedication. She was a wonderful woman too and now Teddy is at peace with her, his father, sister and brothers.

Labels: , , , ,

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Ted Kennedy's passing: A sad day indeed.

As many of you know, I grew up in Boston and when I was a kid, I use to shovel snow for the Kennedy's Mom. It is a sad day indeed to lose Senator Ted Kennedy. He is the last of the great Kennedy's of my generation, with Eunice, Ted's sister, dying only a few weeks ago. I remember when Jack was assassinated. All of Dorchester, a suburb south of Boston, as well as the rest of the country mourned his loss and were infuriated at the way it happened. Then the assassination of his brother Bobby, another tragedy and great loss for our country. And now we lose the last of a band of brothers who so loved this country and devoted themselves to the betterment of society while they were alive. Yes, Teddy will be missed by all of those who benefited from their generosity and kindness. I will miss him too and the family's contribution to the welfare and well being of society. The only ones who will not miss him is the far Right of the Republican party. They will quietly be dancing in the streets, as Teddy was a thorn in many of their sides, and thank God he was.

Labels: , , , , ,

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Put to Call ratio hit extreme on Aug 21, 2009

From the chart above you can see that the Put to Call ratio hit an extreme low reading which hasn't been reached since before 1/2/08. The reading was 0.59 and it signals an immediate Sell signal. The last time it was this low was 12/21/07 and you remember what a bad year 2008 was in the stock market. The Dow was above 13,000 in Dec. 07 in case you forgot! Friday had concurrently the Dow reaching over 9,500, as I wrote in an earlier piece on Saturday. And the S&P 500 also went back up to 1020. These are all indicators this rally's surge has peaked. It is time to sell! If you own any of the Dow stocks, Monday would be a good day to unload them and get your profits and tuck them away in a safe place. If the markets continue to go up this week, the drop will be even sharper when it happens in my view. The market has been very frothy of late and it's the average guy who pays the ultimate price in this game, isn't it. Don't let it be you this time.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

California Unemployment rate reaches 11.9%

California's unemployment rate continues to rise but it is not in the top spot for Unemployed. Michigan holds that spot followed by tiny little Rhode Island, then Nevada and Oregon is tied with California. California has the largest population with about 37 Million people. So when the numbers come out for the U.S. Unemployment rate for the month of August, due on September 4th, expect it to go up from 9.7% to either 9.9% or 10.0%. It will go higher than 10.0% over the next 6 months. The country needs to create jobs, as without them there will not be a recovery. It doesn't look like the private sector can, so people shouldn't be so negative about the government's role here. The government must do the job when the private sector can't, and that is what the Obama Administration is trying to do. So be supportive of what President Obama is trying to do here, my Republican friends, or you too may find yourself in bread lines!

In the photo above, Job seekers line up to inquire about jobs with Cintas Service Professionals at a job fair in San Francisco, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009. The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for the second straight week, a sign that jobs remain scarce even as other data show the economy is stabilizing. (AP Photo by Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Dow closes over 9,500. Now what?

I had said on August 8th, that the Dow could go as high as 9,600, the older high bound range, before dropping back to retest the lows in the Fall and that it would not go over 10,000. I also said the S&P 500 would not go over 1090 in that same post. So Friday's action was not a surprise to me. I used this surge to buy 1500 shares of TZA at $14.05/share. I believe I will surely make a sizable profit on these shares to offset the loses on earlier shares I still own. My total share count now is 9,000 shares.

Many of my friends are scratching their heads in disbelief over the markets rise and continued rise. Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement added gasoline to the "irrational exuberance" late in the week. My previous post showed the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached a high of 145 before yesterday's surge, in almost a straight climb up into the stratosphere, as the chart demonstrates. This is all in preparation for the Fall and the usual volatility as Options expiration approaches for September and October.

Will this year have the expected drops we are accustomed to during these periods or will it give us another head fake and surge ahead again? My betting has been that we will retreat to retest the lows. However, I must admit, this does test one's metal and fiber. I am expecting a slow, and disappointing to Retailers, Christmas shopping season. There are many unemployed on the brink of bankruptcy and facing foreclosure of their homes, as unemployment benefits lapse as the Congress tries to pass a bill to continue benefits for another 13 weeks. This Bill passage will ensure those not counted as unemployed get counted again and this will push the unemployment rate to 11% in the 1st quarter.

Will more jump on the bandwagon and invest in the stock market here at these levels or will they try and preserve capital, as I have said many should? I can feel it, can you? It is the same feeling I had in my stomach in the year 2000 as the Nasdaq spiked up and up and up and everyone jumped on board not to miss any profit which seemed so easy to make. It was the same feeling when people in Las Vegas were buying homes in a sizzling market expecting an automatic easy gain of $60K per home. It was easy money until the bubble burst. It is my opinion, the same thing is starting to happen again. We have not had any normal market pullbacks and those watching on the sidelines are seeing this as a way to regain their sizable portfolio losses.

There is an expression worth saying here now. It is this, "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice and shame on me." I didn't get fooled and caught up in the 2000 bubble and warned many in my newsletter of the pending drop I saw and I had advised my readers to go into cash. I took a lot of heat then as many were riding the rise hoping to continue to see their portfolio on paper go into the stratosphere. They didn't take profits off the table and when the market did finally drop precipitously, their paper gains disappeared and they lost much of what they owned. This was called the bust. If you have made any profits and are feeling good, consider taking them off the table and pocketing them. Don't let greed drive your decision making. Pat yourself on the back and watch the market from the sidelines for a while. We are in dangerous territory again! Good luck.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, August 21, 2009

New data on Corporate America and the stock market

Much to think about going forward in the stock market. As we approach the end of August and the beginning of the Fall, one thing on investors mind is this, Does the stock market have room to still go up since the rise of the past 3 months? To answer that question I will use The Chart of the Day below, because it shows we are in totally unchartered waters.

The scary thing to me from this chart isn't how far the S&P500 has gone up from its historic P/E ratio, but rather the implication for how far the market could drop, if reality sets in that we have a disconnect between the real economy and the stock market. This chart should give all great pause. To add money into the stock market is this level would seem to be the epitome of foolishness. If this doesn't look like a bubble, I don't know what would be a better example. It is a bit scary with a P/E of 145, which is a minimum of 3.5 to 4 times as high as it ever has been. Consider you have been warned! Unless we get a recovery which creates real jobs, we are looking at a very rough road ahead.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Jobless Claims unexpectedly rise this week

The headline says it all. Analysts were expecting jobless claims to shrink this week and it unexpectedly rose 15,000 more jobs lost, to 576,000 jobs for the week. Continuing Claims also went higher to a total of 6.24 Million people are out of work. I don't know why they expect less job losses as I expect more to come. Last night my wife and I went to the famous North Beach area of San Francisco to see a friend open her first art show. We ate in the neighborhood and walked around. For the first time in 25 years, we saw many For Lease signs on buildings and office space. We saw eviction notices posted on businesses by the Sheriff. We also went to my old neighborhood where I lived before I was married, Union Street, and saw a number of new For Lease signs on empty shops. So the notion of less job losses while enticing to believe to increase our confidence level, is misleading. Things are not getting better for many small businesses. Restaurants are holding on with limited cash.

A friend of mine told me her beau, a senior executive specializing in IT, was let go from a well known hospital in San Francisco. No one is apparently safe from layoffs, even some execs. Things are tight and my best guess is that my prediction of a major stock market pullback is on schedule for this Fall, peaking by October Options expiration, the third Friday of October.

Hope I'm wrong and the market may stay disconnected from the reality of the economy, as it is pumped up by government money given to banks and insurance companies. But this disconnect is more troubling than the actual economy, as all it does is increase skepticism by the public of our financial systems. It's called manipulation. The stock market is just like the Casinos, it's a rigged game in favor of the House.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, August 17, 2009

Dick Armey's FreedomWorks wants freedom. Where were they during the Bush years?

I watched Dick Armey on Meet the Press yesterday and his defense of his aims to get government out of healthcare. His belief is that we shouldn't even have Medicare as he is against it, as well. He believes in "Freedom" from government intervention of any kind. So where was he when President Bush was spying on Americans using wiretaps? Where was he when President Bush was wanting to go into Iraq? Where was he when President Bush was spending like crazy and raising the debt of this country to historic proportions under a Republican Congress? I'll tell you he and his group were no where to be found nor heard from during the debate.

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Banking crisis to get much worse, according to John Lounsbury

I read an article this morning that I shared with a number of friends and decided to post it here with all the credit given to its author, John Lounsbury. The title of his article is, "Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions" First, to read the article in its entirety click here, and I recommend you do this. Secondly, here are is main summary points including the first paragraph or two:

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions
August 16, 2009 John Lounsbury

"With everyone (well, almost everyone - I am one of the lonely skeptics) convinced that we have stepped back from the "edge of the abyss", the title of this article may be viewed as laughable. When you connect the dots, as I will in this article, you will at least stop laughing, and, maybe, realize that we still have a big problem.

We have a confluence of five factors that have the potential to create damage to banking not seen in 80 years, and that includes the Great Depression. We'll hit these factors one at a time.:"
Now for his 5 Factors.

First Factor: Banks Are Not Doing Enough Business

Second Factor: Banks Are Failing at a Rate Not Anticipated Two Months Ago

Third Factor: Defaults Are Going to Increase for Several More Quarters

Fourth Factor: The FDIC Is in Trouble

Fifth Factor: We May Be Going to Historic Lows in Bank Credit

Do yourself a big favor and read each detail from the main article. John Lounsbury makes great sense and each of us need to think of the implications for each of our portfolios. It's a very well written article.

Labels: , , ,

A new Milestone reached

Today I crossed over the 45,000 Visitors level and 72,000 pages read on my Blog. I have been doing this now for a little over 4 years. It isn't always easy to write something which is why I have a mixture of articles. I write about the stock market and about the politics of the season. I hope you have enjoyed reading past posts and I will continue to do the best I can to bring you something worthy of your visit, even if it makes you angry. :)

Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Retail sales down another month!

Latest data for July Retail Sales shows it down 0.6%, ex Autos. Overall Retail Sales were down 0.1% for July.The reason to take out the auto numbers is they were pumped up by gov't action from the "Cash for Clunkers" program. This is not good news going into the Back to School season. Import prices are down over 19.3% year over year and once again it shows us in a deflationary environment.The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes rose 7 percent from June to July, as the escalating foreclosure crisis continued to outpace government efforts to limit the damage. Nevada led the nation in foreclosures for July. Foreclosure filings were up 32 percent from the same month last year, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. More than 360,000 households, or one in every 355 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice.

Banks repossessed more than 87,000 homes in July, up from about 79,000 homes a month earlier.

Unemployment unexpectedly increased for the week. The 4 week moving average is up to 558,000 lost jobs.

The Consumer is not returning to the marketplace according to these numbers and unless they do, more are going to lose jobs and more foreclosures are on the horizon. You feeling optimistic now? It's back to school soon and the reality of the world as people return from vacation. Take a deep breath!

Don't forget to take my Mini Poll on the right margin as to how long you believe the recession will last.

Labels: , , , ,

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

The 2 Party system is soon to be made up of Democrats and Progressives and not Republicans

That's right, the Republicans have gone off the deep end on scaring people about Healthcare reform. The Republican Party is relegating itself to obscurity, albeit a loud obscurity, by all the fear mongering, lies, and threats of violence against any Democrat in favor of Healthcare reform. You will see more Republicans becoming Independents and some changing to Democrats, but you will also see more people willing to join the Progressive movement. The Progressive movement is firmly in place in several States. It is solid here in the San Francisco Bay area and believe it or not, it is solidly established in my former State of Vermont, with Senator Bernie Sanders leading the movement.

As long as Republicans continue to use scare tactics and threats of assassination of Democrats, they will drive their members away from the Party. "Free Speech" is protected up to a point. Threatening lynching or assassination of any leader is beyond Free Speech. It's like yelling "Fire" in a movie theater. It's not allowed or you will be arrested. The idea that the Gov't is going to cause the death of seniors is absurd, but they continue this line of protesting. The issue of Healthcare Reform will determine if we as a Nation have evolved from the fear used by the Bush Administration to get us to invade Iraq. If we haven't, God help us. If we have, then these fringe Republicans will remain a minority. I certainly hope they fade away. They may be noisy, but they show the worst of America. I have many terrific Republican friends. They must be shrieking from all the bull being spread around. All of my Republican friends can discuss the issues, agree on certain points, disagree on other points, but we both walk away educated by each other's point of view. That's what's missing from this debate. It is going to force Democrats to ignore the Republican's ideas, some of which are good, because the Bill won't be passed without some changes in the Rules of Congress or the Senate. It may take just 50 votes to pass this as Republicans are generally dismissed, and serves them right.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, August 08, 2009

Stock Market outlook: Where are we headed?

I thought it was time to do some charting and see what has happened in the past few months and where we are headed by mid October using charts as a predictor. I have included two charts today. The first is of the Dow and the second is of the S&P 500 using a 3 year period. I have two added lines on each chart. One is colored Blue and represents why so many thought we were headed down the past month (and we didn't). The second line is red and it shows the highs I think are still possible between now and Options Expiration in October, before we do finally have that downturn I have been expecting. Here are the charts:

For the Dow it says that we will not go over 10,000 and on the S&P 500 we will not go over 1090, but there is still the possibility of some good gains in the meantime. Those of us still holding any Short positions, you have endured a lot of pain these past few months, me included. I don't know for you if this is the time to sell, as it could be almost the worst possible time to do that. But let me be clear here, there is more pain ahead short term for short positions and those wanting to get out should, as you know your tolerance for pain better than I do. I will tell you this, I am holding mine and may buy more to average down. The question to ask yourself is this: Do you think we are near the end of the recession or do you think we are near the bottom of the decline? They are very different questions with differing strategies depending how you answer the questions. I think we are near the bottom of the decline. Just 12 Percent of Stimulus Money Has Been Spent according to this report dated August 5th. Moreover, that 12 percent includes some $13 billion from the Social Security Administration in one-time $250 checks to current Social Security recipients. So we haven't had enough stimulus yet to really make much of a difference. Add to that the fact that over 400,000 were dropped from the unemployment numbers reported yesterday as they gave up looking for work. When the Congress extends benefits for the unemployed, those 400,000 will be added back into the unemployment numbers, making the overall percent unemployed much higher.

It has been a good week for my shares of stocks long and they have given me gains for the week but I am looking at building cash right now in preparation of the Fall drop.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Friday, August 07, 2009

Unemployment rate eases ever so slightly for the first time in a long time! UPDATE

The Unemployment rate for July came in this morning at 9.4% and while this is a terribly high rate, it was down 0.1% from June's number. This is the fist time in a long time where we had a lower unemployment rate than the previous month. I was a bit surprised, especially given that the Obama Administration was telling us the numbers would be worse and preparing us for bad news. I guess it's all about managing Consumer Confidence or should I say manipulating Consumer Confidence.

The pre market levels jumped after the news so I expect today to be a good one for stocks, unless we are all being manipulated there as well. This will get the S&P 500 back up over the 1,000 level and most likely also get the Nasdaq back up over 2,000 again. The Dow Futures are up about 60 in pre market so the Dow will be back up to the 9,300 level again, the top of the range we have been in now for 6 months. Will we break out above 9,400 and beyond on the Dow? I hope not. This news is just a tad better and there will be high Unemployment for a long time, some say years and that keeps the possibility of more foreclosures in housing a real possibility.

European markets were negative going into the Unemployment report but now all are positive. I would not commit new money to this market while it advances a bit. I would be using this time to take profits and selling some positions where profits have been large. The Fall is right around the corner and I am building up a cash position to be able to buy if it proves we have a major correction as I still believe we will.

UPDATE 10:00am PST

So I learned a few things about this month's Unemployment numbers. First, there are about 400,000 people who have just given up and are not in those numbers. Secondly, if they extend Unemployment Benefits as is planned when Congress returns from its recess, then those new people will add to the numbers as they are counted again. And thirdly, the people that would normally layoff workers were most likely on vacation in July. So there is no escaping it, we are in for a long duration of unemployment.

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Restoring order in Town Hall meetings

I have been watching the most recent Town Hall meeting outbursts by Republicans and paid Insurance company lobbyists, who have been using similar tactics in past disruptions and I have wondered why the Democratic politicians haven't been able to manage controlling them. These disruptions are outrageous and juvenile. It seems to me there are two possible tactics which would quell these outbursts. First, establish groundrules for each Town Hall meeting and have police on hand to remove rowdy and abusive demonstrators. Secondly,if there are no police present, a group of other attendees need to ban together, overwhelm them, and remove them by force. These demonstrators need to be shamed in public as cuckoos and nut-jobs! It's appalling and they are trying to hijack the will of the American people on Healthcare reform. Don't let them get away with it. We need, minimally, a Public option, if not, ultimately, a Single payer system. I have written in a previous post that the For-Profit motive in healthcare has ruined healthcare as well as banking. Let's stick together and get healthcare reform approved. Don't let the Republican nuts rule the day.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Sunday, August 02, 2009

The prognosis for the Economy and Unemployment

The Sunday news talk shows had Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Larry Summers as featured guests. What was most evident from both of their conversations was that we have a long time before a real recovery takes place. For example, Geithner said unemployment would "ease" in the second half of next year. Geithner also said that extending unemployment benefits again is something the administration and Congress are going to "look very carefully at as the end of this year approaches." Well, to me that means two things: First, unemployment will rise for a full year from today and with it so will unemployment benefits, not just for the additional 13 weeks being contemplated now. Currently the unemployed are eligible for a total of 79 weeks of unemployment. Add a minimum of 13 additional weeks and you get 92 weeks of paid absence from a job. My God, that is almost 2 years! And those without jobs have at least another year of looking for a job before things look better for them. Consider what these means for the possibility of even more foreclosures.

Everyone believes the Consumer is not spending today but has increased savings. This also says there is most likely systemic changes in the patterns of Consumers behaviors that may be generational in duration. I can imagine a smaller footprint spending form the Consumer and a larger footprint needed by Corporations or Government to pick up that slack to help increase GDP. I saw a formula for GDP this morning while pursuing the Blog articles which said that GDP=C+I+G+(Trade Surplus or Deficit) where C is Consumer spending, I is for investments and G is government spending. You can see from the equation that the biggest part of GDP is going to come from Government (or us) and we are borrowing from the future of our children, kids and grandchildren and dooming them to less of a life to pursue the American Dream than any other generation of the past except from the Great Depression years. How can we look ourselves in the mirror and allow this to happen, you ask? Easy, as this generation of "What's in it for me" Americans, we don't really look in the mirror much and do the self reflection thing very well. We are so focused on ourselves, we have lost morality and sold our souls to the average bidder. Boy, the last 8 plus years have surely screwed up this country so badly, we may never recover. So when you hear the "good news" on better GDP, remember it is the Government spending driving it, not business and not the Consumer for the next few years. Don't be fooled that things are looking better. Make sure you look at the Unemployment rate and keep looking at the number of Home Foreclosures and Business and personal bankruptcies.

The seeds of our destruction were sown many years ago and most likely back in the Reagan Administration, (See the chart below from with a great article that goes along with the chart) where Federal Deficits had new meaning. Ever since then, we have been going out of control. Twenty out of the past 26 years since 1982 when Reagan was President, Republicans have been in control of the Presidency. You will notice on the chart below, it was Clinton who actually turned this trend around only to be reversed again by George W. Bush.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Mini Poll summary for July: How long will the recessionl last?

Below is a summary of the Mini Poll data for July as compared to December, January, February, March, April, May and June.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February, March, April, May, June and July:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%, 4%, 7%, 3%, 2%
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%, 25%, 11%, 6%, 14%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%, 33%, 19%, 14%, 7%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%, 15%, 15%, 9%, 12%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 2%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 7%, 0%, 0%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%, 0%, 19%, 29%, 33%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%, 0%, 11%, 14%, 12%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%, 29%, 18%, 9%, 16%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%, 48%, 34%, 23%, 19%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 12%, 9%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 26%, 29%, 33%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes, for March 39 votes, for April 48 votes, for May 27 votes, June 35 votes and July 42 votes.

The major change seems to be the change in the year 2012. This validates the Consumer Confidence numbers for June, as they dropped from 54.8 in May to a 49.3 in June and 46.6 in July. Do you see a trend here?! That's a 3 Month drop in Consumer Confidence at a time when Retailers are deciding what to order for Christmas from Manufacturers. It does not bode well for the holiday season this year for Retailers and the recovery.

As I said last month, as Unemployment increases so does despair! Feel free to click on my comments button below this post and add some personal examples to what you see daily that has you thinking how the economy is doing. Thanks for voting. I will now drop the Mid 2009 choice since we have past that data point.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Technorati Profile